A Critical Week for Donald Trump and the World
While Trump is not inclined to admit error, we now have two examples of Trump retreating by declaring victory… and it appears to be working for him. The first instance was the “capitulation” of the Houthis. Trump portrayed this as a victory of American military might, but the New York Times is out with a story that confirms my initial judgment that this was a victory in name only:
When he approved a campaign to reopen shipping in the Red Sea by bombing the Houthi militant group into submission, President Trump wanted to see results within 30 days of the initial strikes two months ago.
By Day 31, Mr. Trump, ever leery of drawn-out military entanglements in the Middle East, demanded a progress report, according to administration officials.
But the results were not there. The United States had not even established air superiority over the Houthis. Instead, what was emerging after 30 days of a stepped-up campaign against the Yemeni group was another expensive but inconclusive American military engagement in the region.
It did not help that two $67 million F/A-18 Super Hornets from America’s flagship aircraft carrier tasked with conducting strikes against the Houthis accidentally tumbled off the carrier into the sea.
By then, Mr. Trump had had enough.
Steve Witkoff, his Middle East envoy, who was already in Omani-mediated nuclear talks with Iran, reported that Omani officials had suggested what could be a perfect offramp for Mr. Trump on the separate issue of the Houthis, according to American and Arab officials. The United States would halt the bombing campaign and the militia would no longer target American ships in the Red Sea, but without any agreement to stop disrupting shipping that the group deemed helpful to Israel.
U.S. Central Command officials received a sudden order from the White House on May 5 to “pause” offensive operations.
Put simply, Trump prioritized US interests over those of Israel. But there was another message to the rest of the world… the US military is not invincible. This is not the first failure of the use of US military power… the debacle in Afghanistan and the failure to pacify Iraq also are uncomfortable recent reminders of Washington’s impotence. However, the image of tiny Yemen fending off repeated bombings and missile strikes is without precedent in modern times.
Then there is China and the tariffs. Trump and his economic team are celebrating the deal that is being negotiated in Switzerland and pretending that this was a case of the Chinese surrendering. That is just another case of Houthi capitulation. What is not being emphasized is that the break through came when the US called the Chinese and asked to talk. Trump, as he did with the Houthis, blinked and backed away from the precipice of economic disaster. The US stock market reacted with jubilation.
Finally, I encourage you to read Alastair and Aisling Crooke’s latest compilation of new articles from the Hebrew-language press. These headlines signal that internal divisions in Israel continue to widen and that the US is choosing to ignore Israel on a host of issues that the Zionists view as existential:
Witkoff: “We want to bring the hostages back, but Israel doesn’t want to end the war” /
Ronen Bergman: “Throughout the war, the hostages were never at the top of the priority list” /
A people of Holocaust survivors complicit in the starvation of others? /
‘Smotrich is not marginal, he is not an exception to the Israeli consensus: He is its reflection’ /
Trump sidelines Netanyahu in Middle East policy as relations deteriorate.
“DEAD HOSTAGES COST LESS”
TRUMP SIDELINES NETANYAHU AS RELATIONS DETERIORATE
ISRAEL SLOWLY DESCENDING TO THE BOTTOM OF THE ABYSS
I discussed this issue with NIma during our regular Monday conversation. Judge Napolitano and I reviewed the latest developments surrounding the war in Ukraine, amid reports that Trump has cut a deal with Putin. It is going to be an interesting week.
Business is business. Who wants a regional war when there are golf courses to be developed and deals to be struck? I think the Gulf states (a) understand how much is at stake, and (b) how to tickle the Donald's fancy. From today's Financial Times Due Diligence newsletter:
Billions of dollars are on the table this week as US President Donald Trump jets off to the Middle East.
Ties between the US and the Gulf states have become all the cosier even before the president touches down. Qatar has offered Trump a $400mn jumbo jet replacement for Air Force One: a luxury Boeing 747-8.
While the move drew criticism from supporters and opponents alike, it’s a symbolic way to kick off a week that’s sure to be filled with more transactions.
It’s just the first in a number of deals that have been discussed ahead of the president’s tour of the Middle East.
Top of the agenda for the US administration will be a normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and investment commitments from the oil-rich Gulf states.
Trump’s family already knows the region well, with its members and associates spending the past year on a stretch of intense dealmaking there.
DD has previously written about the exploits of Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who parlayed the connections he made as a senior adviser in the president’s first administration into a global business.
Kushner’s Affinity Partners has received over $3.5bn from funds backed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Meanwhile, Trump’s sons, who assumed control of the president’s business interests when he took office, have also been busy striking deals.
Last month, Eric Trump appeared at an event with Qatar’s minister of municipality to announce a new Trump golf resort in the country. The Trump Organization has also landed licensing deals for residential blocks in Dubai and Jeddah.
And the previous month, Abu-Dhabi’s MGX investment fund used a stablecoin developed by the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial to finance a $2bn deal with crypto exchange Binance.
Trump adviser Elon Musk’s businesses have also benefited from Gulf state money.
Qatar and the UAE contributed to a $6bn fundraising round for xAI and in February, Dubai said it would use Musk’s Boring Company to build a tunnel network.
It’s expected that Musk will join other US executives this week at an investment forum in Riyadh focused on technology, AI and energy.
The forum will close with a flurry of investment announcements, and the executives, including the likes of Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Fink, will hope for further deals in the future.
Those deal announcements will probably be the real fireworks. And as always with Trump, we’re anticipating some shockingly large dollar figures attached.
Great report!
I had heard on The Duran that apparently President Zelensky commented on the decree banning talks with Russia as long as President Putin is leading Russia; stating that that decree is for everybody else in Ukraine - not President Zelensky.
I maka da rooolz and I can breyka da rooolz....
The Duran also noted that whatever the outcome of Ukraine - they will blame President Trump for it. They as in Starmer, Merz, Macron, and the rest of EU/NATO. Also the US Democrats and their umbilical units in the media. I'm sure even our new dear leader Mark Carney will blame President Trump.
Whaydaya we going to do tho'....