Another Look at Root Causes of the War in Ukraine
Donald Trump continues to orient his policy toward Russia based on at least three faulty, wrong assumptions. First, he believes that Russia is suffering massive casualties and cannot sustain these losses. Second, he believes that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was based on some personal animus on the part of Vladimir Putin. Third, he believes that the war is causing great strains on the Russian economy and that Putin is looking for a way out.
Trump is mistaken on every single point. In a recent article, I posted an image of a graph listing the exchange of Russia dead for Ukrainian dead [note — the graph was incorrectly titled by its author as “The Second World War”]. The three exchanges that have taken place since March 28, there are at least 25 Ukrainian cadavers for every single Russian soldier. Not only does this show the disproportionate losses on the part of the Ukrainians, but it also is an indicator of the increasing speed of the Russian advance along the line of contact. If you want a good, reliable source for tracking Russian progress on the battlefields in Ukraine, I recommend you follow Marat Khairullin’s substack.
As far as President Putin’s motives for launching the Special Military Operation in February 2022, it is very simple… stop NATO’s advance to the East. I don’t know if Donald Trump is putting on an act or if he genuinely believes that Russia attack Ukraine because the Russians don’t like Ukraine. Regardless, Ukraine is a pawn of the West, and it is NATO’s documented efforts, dating back to 1995, to cultivate Ukraine as a battering ram to attack and destroy Russia. From Putin’s perspective, negotiations with Ukraine are only the first step in a much larger process, which ultimately must include NATO. Russia wants a permanent end to NATO military exercises on its borders.
I discussed this in detail with Clayton Morris of Redacted:
If you think that I am just offering up an unfounded opinion, think again. I encourage you to watch the following interview with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister. I believe this was recorded on Saturday, after the meeting in Istanbul of the Russian and Ukrainian delegations. Lavrov was not a part of that meeting, but he provides a detailed explanation of Russia’s policy position on the matter:
What about Russia’s economy? In 2024, Russia’s economy experienced notable growth, with official statistics reporting a 4.3% increase in GDP, up from 3.6% in 2023. This acceleration was primarily driven by heightened government spending related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly in sectors like construction and defense. Many so-called experts in the West, particularly in the US, continue to insist that Russia’s economy is on the verge of collapse. Pretty funny considering that in 2024, the U.S. economy experienced a real GDP growth of 2.8%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This growth was driven by increases in consumer spending, investment, government expenditures, and exports.
Russia and the United States share a common characteristic that sets them apart from the vast majority of countries in the world, including China and India… both are blessed with an abundance of natural resources. In this regard, Russia holds an edge over the United States because it is largely self-sufficient, i.e., it can produce everything it needs internally in terms of food and energy without relying on imports. The United States, by contrast, is dependent on imports for significant portion of its economic growth. For example, the US lacks the processing facilities for rare-earth minerals that are critical components in the manufacture of key military and high tech products. Russia does not.
Then there is the issue of government debt. As of 2024, Russia’s government debt is estimated to be between 14.5% and 20.3% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), depending on the source and methodology used. The contrast with the US is staggering — as of the end of 2024, the United States’ national debt stood at approximately $35.5 trillion, marking an increase of $2.3 trillion from the previous fiscal year. This debt level represents about 124% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the height of arrogance for US officials to claim Russia’s economy is struggling in the wake of recent news that Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from its top-tier Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over the escalating debt and persistent fiscal deficits. This downgrade follows similar actions by S&P in 2011 and Fitch in 2023.
To summarize, Donald Trump does not hold any trump cards he can play against Russia. Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, is in a solid position to continue defending Russia’s national security concerns. Under Putin, the Russian middle class has grown from 7% in 1995 to an estimated 50% in 2024. In the United States, the percentage of people classified as middle class has shrunk. In 1995, approximately 56% of U.S. adults lived in middle-class households. This was a period of economic expansion, with median household income increasing by 2.7% from $33,178 in 1994 to $34,076 in 1995. By 2024, the share of Americans in middle-class households had decreased to 51%, according to Pew Research Center. Based on what I personally witnessed in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the Russian people are doing better than the Americans when it comes to the economy.
On the military side of the ledger, Russia has produced at least three operational hypersonic missiles that have been used effectively in combat operations. The US has zero. Russia’s army is at least twice the size of the US. Donald Trump is deluding himself and the American people with his repeated claim that the US has the best military in the world. Hell, we could not stop the Houthis, while Russia is methodically destroying a NATO-proxy army in Ukraine. No brag, just facts.