Are Islamabad and Doha Working To Revive the Iranian/US MoU?

The image topping this piece is a reminder that the wars in Ukraine and Iran are not necessarily separate conflicts. The US remains at the center of both and there is the potential for spillover. Ukraine’s drone attack on the Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, in my view, was a desperate attempt by Zelensky to pander to Donald Trump and show his willingness to sacrifice more Ukrainians in a war that has nothing whatsoever to do with Ukraine. As you can read in the captioned image above, Iran reportedly is gearing up to hit Ukraine with a missile or two. My guess, if it happens, is that Iran will go after targets in Odesa.

Meanwhile, we are getting some hints that Pakistan and Qatar are working to revive the now defunct MoU. The latest news from Interfax is a clue:

Benjamin Netanyahu has informed his cabinet ministers that the United States is insisting on the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Syria, Lebanon, and the Gaza Strip,according to Channel 13, citing a well-informed source.

According to the television channel’s source, Washington is interested in the Israel Defense Forces carrying out a “series of withdrawals” on three fronts, but does not specify whether this refers to a complete or partial withdrawal of troops.

This tells me that the Iranians are insisting, as a precondition to revive the MoU, that the first paragraph of the now inactive MoU must be complied with, i.e., Israel pulls out of Lebanon and Gaza. While Bibi insists that he will firmly resist Trump, Israel’s dependence on the US for imports of critical diesel and jet fuel gives Trump critical leverage over Netanyahu and Israel.

As discussed in my previous article, the United States is facing a series shortage of precision missiles and brewing economic turmoil springing from shortages of diesel and jet fuels because of the lack of heavy crude. So far, by drawing from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Trump administration has been able to postpone the economic shocks of rapidly rising prices caused by the cutoff of oil from the Persian Gulf.

Trump is loathe to concede that the US cannot use military force to compel Iran to bend to the US demands. However, warnings from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs — General Dan Caine — and CENTCOM’s Admiral Cooper about the limits of US power and the potential shortage of critical weapon systems that might be needed against China or Russia have played a crucial role in convincing Trump to get the MoU back in place.

I should have more clarity on this matter by noon Monday and will discuss the latest on Transition Protocol tomorrow afternoon.

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Nima and I discussed Saudi Arabia’s dilemma if it tries to escalate against the Houthis:

Mario learned that Evian spelled backwards is Naive. We discussed the implications of the US depleting its stocks of precision missiles:

Back with Pytor Kurzin who, along with me, is completely baffled by Trump’s schizophrenic Iran policy:

Finally, Sulaiman and I had a lively discussion about whether Iran was foolish to reengage the US in negotiations:

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