Bombing Japan, A Retrospective and the Implications for Iran
Anyone who thinks a massive bombing campaign will compel the Iranians to surrender and dump the mullahs, does not know the history of Japan, the United States and the Soviet Union in 1945. The US bombing of Japan started in earnest in March 1945 and continued through August 8, 1945. The conventional bombing killed an estimated 500,000 Japanese — mostly civilians. The atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August added as many as 226,000 to that macabre sum. Yet, it was not the bombings alone that prodded Japan to surrender… It was the Soviet entry into the war that forced Japan to surrender.
In doing this comparison, consider this: Iran is almost 5 times the geographic size of Japan, and Iran has 91 million people compared to Japan’s population in January 1945, which was an estimated 72 million.
Below is a chronological list of major US bombing raids on Japan during 1945, focusing on the strategic air campaign conducted by the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF), primarily using B-29 Superfortress bombers. This includes both conventional firebombing raids (incendiary attacks on urban areas) and the atomic bombings. The list is derived from historical records and focuses on raids with documented impacts; smaller or reconnaissance missions are omitted. Estimated killed figures refer to civilian and military deaths directly from the raids (immediate and short-term from injuries/fire/radiation), often including ranges due to varying historical assessments. Many estimates are approximate because of the destruction of records, population displacement, and challenges in post-war accounting. Where specific figures are unavailable, I’ve noted “not specified” or provided context from aggregated data:
March 9-10, 1945: Tokyo (Operation Meetinghouse, firebombing). Estimated killed: 80,000–100,000.
March 11, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: Minimal (fewer than 200; raid was ineffective due to high winds dispersing incendiaries).
March 13-14, 1945: Osaka (firebombing). Estimated killed: 3,000–4,000.
March 16-17, 1945: Kobe (firebombing). Estimated killed: 8,000–8,841.
March 18-19, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: 1,000–2,000.
April 13, 1945: Tokyo arsenal district (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (raid targeted industrial areas; casualties lower than major urban raids, likely hundreds).
April 15, 1945: Tokyo region, including Kawasaki and Yokohama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (industrial focus; estimated hundreds to low thousands).
May 13, 1945: Nagoya (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: 3,866.
May 16-17, 1945: Nagoya (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (follow-up raid; likely hundreds).
May 23, 1945: Southern Tokyo (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (urban raid; estimates around 500–1,000).
May 25, 1945: Central Tokyo, including Tokyo Imperial Palace area (firebombing). Estimated killed: 3,000–4,000.
May 29, 1945: Yokohama (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: Over 1,000 (up to 2,600).
June 1, 1945: Osaka (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: 3,960.
June 5, 1945: Kobe (daylight incendiary). Estimated killed: Not specified (follow-up; likely 1,000–2,000).
June 7, 1945: Osaka (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (likely hundreds).
June 15, 1945: Osaka and Amagasaki (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (combined; around 500–1,000).
June 17, 1945: Hamamatsu, Kagoshima, Ōmuta, Yokkaichi (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (dispersed; low hundreds per city).
June 19, 1945: Fukuoka, Shizuoka, Toyohashi (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified (similar to above).
June 28, 1945: Moji, Nobeoka, Okayama, Sasebo (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 1, 1945: Kumamoto, Kure, Shimonoseki, Ube (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 3, 1945: Himeji, Kōchi, Takamatsu, Tokushima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 6, 1945: Akashi, Chiba, Kōfu, Shimizu (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 9, 1945: Gifu, Sakai, Sendai, Wakayama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 12, 1945: Ichinomiya, Tsuruga, Utsunomiya, Uwajima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 16, 1945: Hiratsuka, Kuwana, Numazu, Ōita (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 19, 1945: Chōshi, Fukui, Hitachi, Okazaki (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 26, 1945: Matsuyama, Ōmuta, Tokuyama (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
July 28, 1945: Aomori, Ichinomiya, Tsu, Uji-Yamada, Ōgaki, Uwajima (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
August 1, 1945: Hachiōji, Mito, Nagaoka, Toyama (firebombing). Estimated killed: 1,000–2,000 (Toyama had highest destruction; around 1,500 killed there alone).
August 5, 1945: Imabari, Maebashi, Nishinomiya, Saga (firebombing). Estimated killed: Not specified.
August 6, 1945: Hiroshima (atomic bombing). Estimated killed: 70,000–146,000 (including later deaths from radiation by end of 1945).
August 9, 1945: Nagasaki (atomic bombing). Estimated killed: 40,000–80,000 (including later deaths from radiation by end of 1945).
The good news for Iran — if you dare to call it good news — is that the daily bombings by Israel and the United States have caused only a fraction of the fatalities Japan experience during a six-month bombing campaign.
Russia’s (Soviet Union’s) entry into the Pacific theater of the war was a critical factor in Japan’s surrender, eroding any remaining hope for negotiation and exposing military vulnerabilities. While intertwined with the atomic bombings, it likely accelerated the decision by making total defeat inevitable. In the final months of World War II, Japan was facing mounting defeats in the Pacific, with US forces closing in and a devastating strategic bombing campaign underway. By mid-1945, Japanese leaders were seeking ways to end the war on terms short of unconditional surrender, as outlined in the Potsdam Declaration (July 26, 1945). A key part of this strategy involved approaching the Soviet Union—then neutral under the 1941 Soviet-Japanese Neutrality Pact—to act as a mediator with the Allies. However, at the Yalta Conference in February 1945, Soviet Premier Joseph Stalin had secretly agreed with US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill to enter the war against Japan within three months of Germany’s surrender (which occurred on May 8, 1945).
The atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, killed tens of thousands and shocked Japan’s leadership, but it did not immediately prompt surrender. On August 8, the Soviet Union declared war on Japan, abrogating the neutrality pact. The next day, August 9, over 1.5 million Soviet troops launched a massive invasion (Operation August Storm) into Japanese-occupied Manchuria, Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, and northern Korea. This assault overwhelmed the Japanese Kwantung Army, which numbered around 700,000 but was undermanned and poorly equipped. The Soviets advanced rapidly, capturing vast territories and inflicting heavy casualties—estimates suggest 84,000 Japanese killed and over 600,000 captured by the operation’s end. The same day as the invasion’s start, the US dropped a second atomic bomb on Nagasaki.
The Soviet declaration of war and subsequent invasion played a significant role in Japan’s decision to surrender, often viewed as a “twin shock” alongside the atomic bombings. Japan had pinned its strategy on Soviet mediation to secure a conditional peace, preserving the emperor’s status and avoiding full occupation. Soviet entry into the war shattered this illusion, signaling that no neutral third party would intervene. As noted in declassified documents and historical analyses, Japan’s Supreme War Council was divided post-Hiroshima, with some hardliners still resisting surrender in hopes of Soviet assistance.
The invasion opened a new northern front, threatening Japan’s continental empire and homeland. The Kwantung Army’s rapid collapse—losing Manchuria (a key industrial and resource base) in days—was a psychological blow, demonstrating Japan’s inability to sustain a prolonged defense. This compounded the exhaustion from US island-hopping and bombing campaigns, making continued resistance futile. Soviet forces also seized Sakhalin and the Kurils, cutting off potential retreat routes and supply lines.
In Hirohito’s August 15 surrender broadcast (the “Jewel Voice Broadcast”), he cited the atomic bombs but also alluded to the “new and most cruel bomb” and the broader strategic situation, which implicitly included the Soviet threat. A subsequent message to the armed forces on August 17 explicitly referenced Soviet entry as a reason for surrender. Military leaders, fearing Soviet occupation of the home islands, saw it as a tipping point. Even after the emperor’s decision, a failed coup by hardline officers on August 14–15 aimed to continue the war, underscoring the internal resistance that Soviet actions helped overcome.
My point in revisiting Japan’s decision to end the war is to emphasize the limitations of achieving a surrender or a regime change via bombing alone. Even the use of two atomic bombs did not persuade the Japanese to surrender… The entrance of Russian troops into the fray tipped the scales in Japan’s decision to accept unconditional surrender. Compared to what the US did to Japan in 1945, the current attack on Iran represents a much smaller scale of destruction… Thank God for that.
Meanwhile, the comparison photos at the top of this article show that Iran is exacting a high price on US radars and air defense systems. Unlike Japan, who was bleeding out in the final year of the war, Iran continues to hit key US military installations in the Persian Gulf while pummeling Israel’s economic and military infrastructure. As long as Iran maintains control of the Persian Gulf, this war will go on for several months.
It was a busy video day. First up is me and the Judge:
Nima interviewed Pepe Escobar and me back-to-back:
Dr. David Oualaalou and I discussed the war in Iran:
Mario Nawfal and I had an engaging conversation about some of the myths being pushed by Washington with respect to Iran:
And I closed out the day with Kyle Anzalone:
A couple of minor footnotes: (1) Britain was bombed during WW2, including the metropolitan area of London. That bombing did not seem to generate a noticeable slowdown of the British war effort during that bombing period. (2) NAZI Germany's single-seat fighter production rate reached its peak in September 1944, after more than a year of Allied bombing. (3) Japan did not do much underground work on Japanese proper until the second half of the war, and the above-ground structures were constructed by 90% wood. Iran has prepared for an invasion by the US for at least 20+ years, some would say 40+ years. And Iranian above-ground buildings are mostly made of concrete and stones
"he cited the atomic bombs but also alluded to the “new and most cruel bomb” and..." Bit of repetition there.