Donald Trump Continues to Send Mixed Messages on Israel and Russia

Since it is the Fourth of July, I suppose the most apt metaphor to describe Donald Trump’s foreign policy is a fireworks display. For those of you who live overseas, it is tradition in America to detonate fireworks to commemorate the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Trump’s fireworks display is not like those professional spectacles you see when New Year’s Eve is celebrated — i.e., highly scripted, well-organized and impressive. Nope. Trump is like that guy in your neighborhood who is convinced he invented firecrackers and spurting flaming fountains, and he is going to show the neighbors how its done. The problem is that he almost sets himself ablaze; he fires some errant bottle rockets into the neighbor’s home and starts a real fire; some of the Roman candles don’t ignite; but, he manages to salvage a blazing finale because he accidentally detonates the propane gas tank that heats his hot tub. He then turns to his neighbors and proclaims, “that was the biggest, most magnificent display in history.” And he truly believes it.

So let’s start with potential, promising developments with respect to Gaza. Netanyahu’s popularity reportedly has soared in Israel and his Likud party now believes they can win a snap election and will no longer have to cater to the Zionist crazies, like Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Trump’s intervention with the Israeli court seems to have removed, at least temporarily, the legal sword of Damocles hanging over Bibi’s noggin. How is this good news for the Palestinians? Because Bibi reportedly is now willing to entertain a ceasefire, accompanied by a release of hostages on both sides, and Hamas reportedly is favorably considering the deal.

However, the deal ain’t done and there are still points of disagreement between Hamas and Israel. Specifically:

– The withdrawal of the Israeli army from key positions in the Gaza Strip.

– Changing the mechanism for humanitarian aid.

– Guarantees for the continuation of negotiations.

And there are other disturbing signs that Israel is just trying to buy time. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu reportedly has asked his war cabinet to prepare an “evacuation plan” of the Palestinian population from the north of the Gaza Strip to Rafah, the very south of the strip. Likud Ministers also are urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to annex the West Bank as the time is just “ripe” following Israel’s victories abroad, according to Israeli Channel 12’s Amit Segal. I think these are two issues that Netanyahu will discuss with Donald Trump on Monday, during his trip to Washington. Trump being Trump, I expect Bibi will persuade him that this is the best policy to pursue. So, hopes of even a temporary ceasefire and the establishment of a reliable, safe flow of humanitarian aid to the residents of Gaza are dim at best.

Turning to Trump’s relations with Putin, Trump continues to insist that the war in Ukraine ain’t his fault — it is Joe Biden’s — and that he is disappointed that Vladimir Putin won’t kiss his ass like the NATO Secretary General did a week ago. Trump reportedly spent almost two hours on the phone with Ukraine’s Zelensky today, and both sides seem pleased with the call. Trump even said he would see what he could do to get Ukraine some more air defense. Zelensky offered a more upbeat assessment:

We discussed air defense capabilities and agreed that we will work to increase air defense.

We agreed on a corresponding meeting of our teams.

Instead of confronting Zelensky with the hard truth that the US cupboards are bare and that Russia is beating the tar out of Ukraine, Trump opted for the cowards way out and played along with Zelensky’s delusions. Trump may think he is very clever with these tactics, but he is just perpetuating the war… one he could end in short order if he eliminated all support to Ukraine.

I started by Friday morning by chatting with Jyotishman, who is currently in Beijing. We had a fascinating chat about the eschatological nonsense that governs US policy in West Asia:

And then there is Nima. We are at war… he’s showing up with better shirts than me. Actually, our chuckles about wardrobe is a nice diversion from the grim news we covered with respect to the Palestinians, Iran and the war in Ukraine: