Donald Trump Has a Major Political Problem Over Iran

I had the honor today to address the Republican club of Manatee County Florida. My primary topic was explaining the link between Russiagate and the war in Ukraine. As part of my presentation, I discussed the gaslighting about Iran being the number one sponsor of terrorism. I provided the facts and sources to show that is a specious claim. After my speech, I had the chance to chat with several ardent supporters of Donald Trump and the threat to attack Iran. For those of you not familiar with Manatee County, it is one of the strongest bastions of Trump supporters in the entire United States. Not a single person approached me to say, “Man, I’m glad Trump is going to attack Iran.” Just the opposite… great concern about Trump even considering such action.

What I heard today from active Republican voters, including a person who was the head of Trump’s campaign in this area, supports the results of a recent poll reported by The Federalist… it spells big trouble for Donald Trump if he attacks Iran:

Iran and Israel

• Half (50%) of Americans view Iran as an enemy to the U.S.; 25% say it is unfriendly and 5% say it is an ally or friendly

• Only 16% of Americans think the U.S. military should get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran; 60% say it should not and 24% are not sure

  • Majorities of Democrats (65%), Independents (61%), and Republicans (53%) oppose U.S. military intervention in Iran

• About as many Americans see Iran’s nuclear program as a threat as oppose military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict: 61% of Americans view Iran’s nuclear program as either an immediate and serious threat to the U.S. (24%) or a somewhat serious threat (37%)

• Far more Americans say the U.S. should than should not engage in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program (56% vs. 18%). Similar shares of Democrats (58%) and Republicans (61%) say the U.S. should engage in negotiations

• A decade ago, soon after the U.S. and five other countries reached a deal with Iran over its nuclear program, a larger share of Americans (32%) were opposed to the U.S. negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program than are today (18%). In 2015, with Democrat Barack Obama in the White House, far more Republicans than Democrats were opposed to negotiations (52% vs. 18%)

• Which strategies do Americans think the U.S. should employ to get Iran to limit its nuclear program, when selecting any option from a list they think is worth pursuing?

  • No single strategy has majority support, among Americans overall, Democrats, or Republicans. The largest shares of Americans are in favor of threatening Iran with harsher economic sanctions (28%), incentivizing Iran with resumption of diplomatic relations (26%), and incentivizing Iran by easing of economic sanctions (24%)

  • Republicans are most likely to favor threatening Iran with harsher economic sanctions (38%) or the use of military force (29%)

  • Democrats are most likely to favor incentivizing Iran with resumption of diplomatic relations (33%) or by easing economic sanctions (31%)

• Net approval of Trump’s handling of Iran is -4, and net approval of his handling of Israel is -7

Trump has only one exit from this dilemma… accept Iran’s commitment to not build a nuclear weapon while retaining its right to peacefully enrich uranium. I am afraid that Trump will reject this option and, despite warnings from Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon and Candace Owens, he will take the plunge and expand the war with Iran. I hope, for the sake of the World, that I am wrong.

Here is a video featuring former State Department Foreign Service Officer, Tammy Fitzgerald, and me, debating indirectly the US-sponsored war in Ukraine. Things got a bit heated when Tammy attacked my integrity:

I recorded the following Counter Currents commentary on Tuesday… I think the analysis still holds: