Donald Trump, Not Barack Obama, is Responsible for Ukraine’s Dramatic Military expansion between 2011 and 2021

Donald Trump is fond of blaming Barack Obama and Joe Biden for the debacle in Ukraine, but he is wrong. A major share of the blame also lies with Donald Trump because he oversaw the dramatic growth of the Ukrainian military during his first term and, to this day, brags about supplying Ukraine with Javelin missiles. I am no fan of Barack Obama… in fact, I’ve been a staunch critic, but the data on the growth of the Ukrainian military during Trump’s first term is irrefutable.

Let’s start with examining the size of Ukraine’s army in December 2016. This was at the last month of Obama’s time as President.

• Active-duty personnel (2016): About 204,000 military servicemen (by late 2016)​mil.gov.ua. Ukraine’s MoD “White Book 2016” reports a total Armed Forces strength of 250,000 people by end-2016, comprising 204,000 servicemen and 46,000 civilian staff​mil.gov.ua.

• Reserve personnel (2016): About 130,000 trained reservists (end-2016)​mil.gov.ua. In 2016 Ukraine formalized an “operational reserve” of combat veterans. Official figures show the size of this reserve grew from ≈2,000 in 2014 to ≈130,000 by year’s end​mil.gov.ua.

• Combined total (active + reserve): ~334,000 personnel. Adding active servicemen (~204k) and reservists (~130k) gives roughly 334,000 military personnel in 2016. (Total Armed Forces strength including civilian staff was 250,000​mil.gov.ua, but the question focuses on uniformed members.)

What happened to Ukraine’s military during Donald Trump’s first term? As of December 2020, Ukraine’s military comprised approximately 298,000 active-duty personnel, according to World Bank data compiled from official sources. This figure includes all branches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ground Forces, Air Force, Navy, Air Assault Forces, and Special Operations Forces.​TheGlobalEconomy.com+2Trading Economics+2Macrotrends+2Theodora+2IndexMundi – Country Facts+2

As of January 2021, Ukraine also maintained a substantial military reserve force, estimated at approximately 900,000 reservists. This figure encompasses various categories of reserve personnel, including:​

National Guard Reservists: The National Guard of Ukraine also maintained its own reserve units, contributing to the overall reserve strength. ​

Operational Reserve: Comprising trained individuals who have completed military service and are prepared for rapid mobilization.​

Territorial Defense Forces: A component of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, these forces were in the process of formal organization during this period. Legislation enacted in July 2021 aimed to establish a structured reserve force, which officially came into effect on January 1, 2022. The plan included a core of 10,000 career personnel and an additional 120,000 civilian reservists, totaling 130,000 members for the Territorial Defense Forces. ​GOV.UK+1Wikipedia+1

For the math-challenged out there, this means Ukraine’s total manpower (i.e., active duty + reserves) increased by a factor of 3.6. Whether or not Donald Trump was aware of this is another question. If he knew, then he absolutely shoulders a significant part of the blame for increasing tensions with Russia that led ultimately to the Special Military Operation in February 2022. If Trump did not know, then this is an indictment of his failure to preside over his administration’s national defense policy, and it is a tacit admission that the Deep State was executing its own agenda.

It also is the case that NATO exercises shifted from ostensibly defensive to offensive preparations. The annual military exercise in the Black Sea, i.e., SEA BREEZE, shifted in 2017 from maritime security, anti-piracy, and naval interoperability objectives to amphibious warfare and anti-submarine warfare. To be fair, the anti-submarine warfare focus was initiated in 2016, when Obama was President. It continued under Donald Trump and was accompanied by the addition of amphibious warfare. NATO could no longer pretend that it was just a defensive organization. Amphibious and anti-submarine warfare are offensive operations.

My point is simple… Donald Trump played a bigger role, at least militarily, than Barack Obama in prepping Ukraine to go to war with Russia.

Trump and his national security team continue to ignore Russia’s firm position regarding negotiations to bring a final end to the war in Ukraine. Sergei Lavrov, speaking to a reporter on Sunday writing for Brazil’s major newspaper, O Globo, reiterated the policy Vladimir Putin presented in June 2024:

• Ukraine must lift its “legislative ban on negotiations with Russia.”

• Ukraine cannot become a NATO member and must maintain a neutral and non-aligned status.

• Russia seeks to “overcome the consequences of the neo-Nazi regime in Kiev,” including efforts to legislate and physically destroy everything Russian—language, media, culture, traditions, and canonical Orthodoxy.

• Russia demands international recognition of its sovereign control of Crimea, Sevastopol, the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Lugansk People’s Republic, and the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

• All of Kiev’s obligations must be legally secured, have enforcement mechanisms, and be permanent.”

• The agenda includes tasks related to the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, lifting sanctions, addressing lawsuits and arrest warrants, and returning Russian assets that are currently “frozen” in the West.

• Moscow is also seeking “reliable security guarantees against threats posed by the hostile actions of NATO, the European Union, and their individual member states along our western borders.

In other words, no permanent ceasefire until these issues are settled. I discussed this matter with Nima and with Judge Napolitano today: