General Cavoli’s Schizophrenia on Ukraine

General Christopher Cavoli

The Commander of US forces in Europe (aka USEUCOM), General Chris Cavoli, was on Capitol Hill today testifying before the Senate Armed Services committee. His opening statement is a remarkable mix of candor, fantasy and pure unadulterated male bovine excrement (MBE). It highlights my past contention that senior US defense officials will shade the truth (a euphemism for “lie”) in order to keep an existing policy intact, even if that policy is failing. We saw that in the Vietnam War and, more recently, the parade of generals who repeatedly told Congress that we were winning in Afghanistan.

I will excerpt a few paragraphs from his statement that illustrate what I mean. Cavoli grudgingly admits, early on in his remarks, that Russia is not on the ropes militarily:

Russian Reconstitution
Despite extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, the Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated. In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war—despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties. In December 2024, Moscow ordered the military to increase its strength to 1.5 million active service members and is recruiting approximately 30,000 troops per month. Russian forces on the frontlines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial invasion force.

Despite repeating the canard that Russia has suffered 790,000 casualties, Cavoli concedes that the Russian military is larger today than in 2022 and that the Russians are adding at least 360,000 new soldiers to the ranks annually. I want to remind you that during the past 70 years, the US military has consistently over estimated enemy losses. The most egregious case was the Vietnam War, as I discussed in a previous article. During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, CIA and DIA analysts claimed that Russia lost more than 30,000 men. Russia’s official figures were half of that. I do give Cavoli credit for admitting that the “Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated.”

The next paragraph is a real stunner:

Russia is not just reconstituting service members but is also replacing combat vehicles
and munitions at an unprecedented pace. Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an
estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air
defense systems in the past year—but is on pace to replace them all. Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial
production lines for military purposes. As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is
expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. (Comparatively, the United States only produces about 135 tanks per year and no longer produces new Bradley Fighting Vehicles.) Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined.

The key point is not the massive ESTIMATED losses of Russian tanks, vehicles and artillery. Despite the losses, Russia “is on pace to replace them all.” Cavoli also admits that Russia is producing 11 tanks for every one that the US can produce. And that number is misleading. The US tanks Cavoli is referencing are mostly refurbishments of existing frames. The US is not producing brand new tanks. The kicker comes in the final sentence: Russia is producing three times the number of artillery shells than the US and Europe combined. Yet, many delusional Western pundits insist Russia’s economy is struggling, on the verge of collapse. That qualifies as MBE.

Cavoli’s first sentence in the next paragraph is a real head scratcher, because he implies that some of Russia’s military capability has been degraded. Really? He has just admitted that Russia’s army is growing dramatically and that Russia’s defense industry is firing on all cylinders. I think he is just trying to put some lipstick on the dying pig that is Ukraine.

Not all of Russia’s military capability has been degraded by the war. Russia continues to
hold the largest nuclear weapons stockpile in the world. Russia’s nuclear arsenal is composed of an estimated 2,500-3,500 high- and low-yield warheads, which can be tailored for use on the battlefield or employed strategically. Recently, the Kremlin updated its nuclear policy, which is intended to communicate a lower nuclear threshold and outlines the range of contingencies that could justify the use of nuclear weapons. Russia also maintains robust chemical and biological weapons programs and has repeatedly used the chemical weapon chloropicrin and riot control agents as a method of warfare across the frontlines of Ukraine, in violation of its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention. Within its air and maritime capabilities, Russia has sustained only minor losses in Ukraine. The Russian Aerospace Force currently retains over 1,100 combat-capable aircraft that include Su-57 stealth fighters and Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers. Aside from some losses in its Black Sea Fleet, the Russian Navy remains intact, with over 60 submarines and 42 surface vessels capable of launching nuclear-tipped Kalibr cruise missiles.

Buried in the last few sentences are some bombshell revelations — i.e., the Russian Aerospace Force has suffered only minor losses and the Russian Navy is in very good shape. So, what part of the Russian military has been degraded. How about the performance of the Russian army:

Russian formations are gaining combat experience. The military has demonstrated its ability to learn from the battlefield, disseminate new concepts across organizations, and counter Ukrainian tactical and technical advantages. It has implemented rapid cycles of adaptation and is developing new capabilities to accelerate force modernization. In November 2024, the Russian military conducted its first strike on a Ukrainian military facility with the new Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile. Russian officials have
stated this missile could be equipped with a nuclear warhead. We have seen Russian forces
employ new, domestically produced electronic countermeasures against Ukrainian jamming technology to improve strike efficacy. Additionally, Russian ground forces are integrating reconnaissance and one-way attack drones into their offensives on the battlefield. Russia is also expanding its undersea capabilities through the addition of Severodvinsk-II class nuclear- powered cruise missile attack submarines, Dolgorukiy II-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, and other undersea reconnaissance capabilities both in the European and Indo-Pacific theaters. These new capabilities show that the Russian military is intent on gaining tactical and operational advantage for the future battlefield.

In other words, the Russian military leaders are not a bunch of incompetent dolts and Russian troops are demonstrating an enviable level of sophistication in their operations. I ask again: What degradation?

In case you forgot, Adam Entous’ New York Times article on Monday, revealed Cavoli as an anti-Slav racist and the master planner of Ukraine’s failed attacks on Russia. Here’s a sample of relevant quotes from that piece:

The British, for their part, argued that if the Ukrainians were going to go anyway, the coalition needed to help them. They didn’t have to be as good as the British and Americans, General Cavoli would say; they just had to be better than the Russians. . . .

Unless the coalition reoriented its own ambitions, General Donahue and the commander of U.S. Army Europe and Africa, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, concluded, the hopelessly outmanned and outgunned Ukrainians would lose the war. The coalition, in other words, would have to start providing heavy offensive weapons — M777 artillery batteries and shells. . . .

So Generals Cavoli and Aguto recommended the next quantum leap, giving the Ukrainians Army Tactical Missile Systems — missiles, known as ATACMS, that can travel up to 190 miles — to make it harder for Russian forces in Crimea to help defend Melitopol. . . .

But first, the immediate business in Wiesbaden: Generals Cavoli and Aguto explained that they saw no plausible path to reclaiming significant territory in 2024. The coalition simply couldn’t provide all the equipment for a major counteroffensive. Nor could the Ukrainians build an army big enough to mount one. . . .

The Ukrainians asked for permission to use U.S.-supplied weapons across the border. What’s more, Generals Cavoli and Aguto proposed that Wiesbaden help guide those strikes, as it did across Ukraine and in Crimea — providing points of interest and precision coordinates. . . .

This became the moment the Biden administration changed the rules of the game. Generals Cavoli and Aguto were tasked with creating an “ops box” — a zone on Russian soil in which the Ukrainians could fire U.S.-supplied weapons and Wiesbaden could support their strikes.

If a Russian general, operating from Mexico, had engaged in this kind of conduct on US soil, do you think the President, the Congress and the American people would care? Bet your ass they would. Trump and his negotiators better keep that in mind as they deal with Putin and his team. They are not going to exonerate the US of its responsibility for facilitating the deaths of more than a million Ukrainians and thousands of Russians.

I had a nice chat today with the esteemed Garland Nixon. Always a gentleman, but tough as woodpecker lips: