I will answer my question right up front: Yes! The reaction of the West, especially that of Donald Trump, to Russia’s current offensive all along the line of contact, is reminiscent of the panic that seized the West in 2015 following Ukraine’s loss in the Battle of Debaltseve. That battle came about in part because of the failure of Minsk I, and was the impetus for Minsk II.
So what does this have to do with the current situation in Ukraine? I believe that the primary reason that Donald Trump dramatically shortened his 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to 10 days, was because of the dire situation Ukraine now faces all along the line of contact. Debaltseve was just one battle, which Ukraine lost. The current battles underway are far larger and encompass the following agglomerations:
Toretsk (Donetsk Oblast): Intense battles are ongoing near Toretsk, including Ukrainian advances within Katerynivka and Shcherbynivka, and Russian advances in nearby areas such as Rusyn Yar and Poltavka. Russian and Ukrainian forces are contesting several settlements along key axes northwest and west of Toretsk. Elements of Russia’s 20th Motorized Rifle Division, supported by artillery and drones, are actively engaged in the area.
Pokrovsk: Pokrovsk faces concentrated Russian assaults and is currently a focal point of fighting, with Russian forces intensifying attacks across the front. Ukrainian defenders confront urgent threats within and around the city as Russia adapts new offensive tactics.
Chasiv Yar (Donetsk Oblast): Russia recently captured Chasiv Yar, a heavily fortified eastern city. This victory allows Russia to target Ukraine’s so-called “fortress belt,” a network of defensive strongholds, and opens further offensive opportunities in the region.
Zaporizhia Region: Russia maintains high-intensity bombardments—over 400 airstrikes on 16 settlements—leading to heavy casualties and destruction, marking continued contestation in this southern front.
Let’s first review the importance of the Battle of Debaltseve, which was fought between January and February 2015, and marked a major setback for Ukraine the Donbas region. Its importance stems from several key factors:
Strategic Location: Debaltseve was a critical transportation hub, particularly for its railway junction connecting the Russian-backed separatist-controlled cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. Control over Debaltseve allowed influence over supply lines and movement in the region, making it a focal point for both Ukrainian forces and Russian/separatist forces.
Ceasefire Violations and Minsk II: The battle occurred during a period of intense fighting despite the Minsk Protocol (September 2014), which aimed to establish a ceasefire. The escalation at Debaltseve exposed the fragility of the ceasefire and led to the signing of the Minsk II agreement on February 12, 2015, as international mediators (France, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia) sought to halt the violence. However, fighting continued even after the agreement, undermining trust in the peace process.
Military and Political Implications: The battle resulted in a significant defeat for Ukrainian forces, who were encircled and forced to withdraw under heavy pressure from Russian-backed separatists, supported by regular Russian troops (as reported by Ukrainian and Western sources). The loss highlighted Ukraine’s military vulnerabilities at the time, including issues with coordination, logistics, and equipment, while boosting the morale and territorial control of separatist forces.
Human Cost and Humanitarian Impact: The battle caused significant casualties, with estimates of hundreds killed (both military and civilian) and thousands displaced. The intense shelling and fighting devastated Debaltseve, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the Donbas region and drawing international attention to the plight of civilians caught in the conflict.
Geopolitical Ramifications: The battle underscored Russia’s direct involvement in the conflict, as Western governments and organizations like NATO cited evidence of Russian military equipment and personnel in Debaltseve. This intensified sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia, further straining its relations with the West and solidifying Ukraine’s push for international support.
Long-Term Impact on the Conflict: The fall of Debaltseve consolidated separatist control over key areas of the Donbas, setting a precedent for the protracted, low-intensity conflict that followed. It also shaped Ukraine’s subsequent military reforms and increased its reliance on Western military aid to counter Russian aggression.
We subsequently learned that Minsk II was a sham devised by the West to permit Ukraine to rebuild its military force. Angela Merkel made statements about the Minsk II agreement in interviews in 2022, specifically in June and December. In a June 2022 interview with Der Spiegel, she indicated that the Minsk talks helped Ukraine “buy time” to strengthen itself against Russia. She elaborated in a December 2022 interview with Die Zeit, stating, “The 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today. The Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the Ukraine of today.”
Following Merkel’s confession of the real purpose of Minsk II, Vladimir Putin publicly admitted that he had been deceived by the Minsk II agreements in statements made in November and December 2022. In a conversation cited in the book “Vladimir Putin. From the Annals of the XXI Century,” Putin described the Minsk agreements as “nothing but sheer deception” and said Western leaders used the process to buy time and prepare Ukraine for war. In December 2022, Putin elaborated that “no one was going to fulfill the Minsk agreements,” admitting, “It turns out that they also deceived us, and the point was only to pump Ukraine with weapons and prepare for combat operations. Apparently, we got our bearings late, to be honest.”
Now we have Donald Trump begging for a personal meeting with Vladimir Putin. While some in Russia have expressed fears that Putin is once again being offered the Charlie Brown meme of kicking the football, I think Mr. Putin has learned his lesson and is not going to reverse his stated policy. While many in the West are pushing the narrative that Putin will give up claims to Zaporizhia and Kherson, that is not true. Those two former oblasts of Ukraine are now, according to the Russian Constitution, legally part of Russia. Putin does not have the authority to change that fact without legislative action by the Russian Duma.
Given this fact, I believe that the deal Putin will offer to Donald Trump is a halt to military operations in Sumy and Kharkiv if, and only if, Ukraine withdraws its military forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson; that NATO end all military support for Ukraine; and that the United States agrees to negotiate based on the draft treaty Putin presented to Joe Biden in December 2022. If Trump does not take that deal, the war will continue until Russia consolidates all territory east of the Dnieper River.
I recorded a monologue on Thursday — before all the details about the meeting in Alaska had been announced — about what to expect from the Putin Trump summit:
I posted earlier on in the week this meeting ain’t gonna happen! the reason behind my post TRUMP and NATO are Lying Bastards. If it transpires the meeting goes ahead the POTUS is I believe in for a rude awakening. The West hold no cards worth having we instigated and caused the War. and basically all the Deaths and Destruction in Ukraine should rightly be laid at the doors of NATO and the West. Trump is gonna have to suck it up or Go Nuclear ☢️ and we know he won’t accept being humbled and humiliated. This Nut Job will destroy the World rather than admit to being a puppet to Benny and his Zionist Nazi Regime and the Real Rulers of America The Jews.
HERE'S THE REAL REASON THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION THRIVED (AND WON) DESPITE WESTERN SANCTIONS, DESPITE WESTERN MILITARY BACKING OF UKRAINE.
I am not a Christian. I am a Muslim. I will explain, in my humble (or not so humble) opinion, exactly why the Russian Federation kicked the West's ass ass in Ukraine.
1. Between 1988 (three years before the Soviet Union fell) and 2018, the ROC (Russian Orthodox Church) built 30,000 ROC Churches. That’s one-thousand Churches per year between those years. Here in the U.S., religion and spirituality are being trashed. Those that ARE interested in a religion, such as Evangelical Christian Zionists, want to bomb the SHIT out of, as we used to say in the hood, eebody and dey mamma. What kind of Christianity is THAT?!
2. Russia stands as the leader, as I see it, of the development of a uni-polar world. It is spreading a SPIRIT OF COOPERATION. The U.S., on the other hand, is STILL attempting to create a world where IT is SLAVE MASTER, and the rest of the world are SLAVES. The power of the development of a spirit of cooperation must not be underestimated. Russia's KICKING ASS because it is working WITH the non-Western world, not against it.
There are other reasons that Russia is winning its war against Ukraine, including resource richness, wise development of its manufacturing processes, etc. But, the NUMBER ONE reason that Russia kicks ass is its return to its religious traditions. And it appears that the people, including Putin, are VERY serious about their religion.
In that regard, Putin HONORS, openly, not only his Russian Orthodox Religion by attending ROC religious holidays and celebrations, he ALSO honors Islam in Russia. There are pictures of him standing with the great Muslims Imams and religious leaders there, KISSING the Qur'an.
And let's say that his intentions in honoring Islam and Muslims are strictly political, not religious. Well, I think it was the Italian political philosopher, Machiavelli, who said that a WISE political leader DOES NOT attempt to interfere with, or crush, the institutions of a society that the people love. So, aside from Putin's religious beliefs, which I, personally, feel are genuine, HE AIN'T STUPID. He understands that you can't (and pardon my ghetto) fuck around with the social institutions that the citizens deeply believe in.
So, leaving religion to the side, Putin is SMART!! And it's paying off for him, and for Mother Rus, BIG time. I've been following, as best I can, Russia's SMO since it started, Thursday, February 24, 2022. And what I've noticed is that the most FEROCIOUS fighters in Russia are the MUSLIM groups. I can't remember their names, but I think that there are two of them, in particular, that kick BIG ass. That's not coincidental.
In the religion of Islam--and I mean the true core believes as handed down, and understood, from the study of Qur'an and the Sunnah [practices of Muhammad], if Muslims are ruled under a non-Muslim entity, and that non-Muslim entity is GOOD AND JUST, then the Muslims are FORBIDDEN to fight against that entity on the basis of religion. In fact, Muslims who are ruled by a just ruler are bidden to FIGHT, with love and honor and passion, for the protection of the country, as long as the ruler remains a just ruler.
And I'll tell you something else!!! Putin is a fucking GENIOUS!!! I find it absolutely impossible to believe that he DOESN'T know the teachings of Islam regarding "the just ruler." HELL YES, he knows!!! If there could be an election for "President of the World," Putin would get my vote!!!