How Iran Can Defeat Donald Trump
Donald Trump and his national security team continue to push the narrative that the US is dominating Iran and that it is only a matter of time before Iran crumbles in the face of the might of the US military. Iran, apparently, has not received that memo and is pursuing its own course of action. We are now entering the fourth day of this unprovoked attack by Israel and the US and Iran shows no sign of weakening. In fact, Iran has expelled the US military from its bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirate. It did so by launching drone and missile attacks on those bases and installations, which forced the Americans and their NATO allies to flee from those locations.
In the ongoing escalation of the war launched by the US and Israel (following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran, including the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026), Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched retaliatory ballistic missile and drone attacks on US radar systems in Qatar and Bahrain.
At the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Iran destroyed the AN/FPS-132 radar (also referred to as FPS-132 or AN/FPS-132 Block 5 Upgraded Early Warning Radar/UEWR). This is a US Air Force-operated, long-range early warning radar designed for ballistic missile detection and tracking. It provides wide-area surveillance, with a reported detection range of up to 5,000 km (about 3,100 miles) for missile launches. This was used during the June 2025 12-day war to detect and track Iranian missiles headed to Israel.
Iran also destroyed the large air‑search radar dome in Bahrain, which is located at the Naval Support Activity Bahrain / US Navy Fifth Fleet HQ. This kind of radar is used for wide‑area air and surface surveillance and for feeding air picture to Patriot/THAAD and fleet ops. The destruction of this unit significantly reduces the capability of the deployed air defense systems to detect and track in-bound threats. The destruction of these two radar systems will improve Iran’s ability to hit targets in Israel.
Iran also appears to have downed three F-15 combat aircraft. US Central Command insists that the planes were downed by friendly fire, but that is nonsense. The official US military report admits that Iranian aircraft had been engaging them at a time when “air superiority” was allegedly long established. Those planes carried IFF (i.e., Identification Friend or Foe), which is basically an encrypted “question and answer” radio system that lets radars and other aircraft positively recognize it as friendly. Before flight, ground crew or aircrew load crypto keys (for secure modes like Mode 4/5) into the IFF using a fill device, and set required mission codes. In flight, when the fighter appears on someone’s radar, that radar or airborne interrogator sends a coded challenge. The jet’s transponder:
• Recognizes the interrogation mode and code.
• Uses its loaded crypto to generate a valid encrypted response if the challenge is correct.
• Transmits a reply on a reply frequency that includes ID, and in some modes altitude or other data.
In other words, US CENTCOM wants you to believe that the IFF on three planes failed or that the crews operating the Patriot missile batteries failed to recognize the IFF signals. If it was just one plane I would be inclined to believe CENTCOM’s explanation… But three? Sorry, this is Male Bovine Excrement.
Iran wasted little time after the attack on Saturday morning that killed the Ayatollah Khomenei and senior leaders of the Iranian military and security services in shutting down maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. While the US and Israeli missiles continue to pound Iran, the IRGC and the Iranian navy appear quite capable to prevent any ship carrying oil or liquid natural gas from leaving the Persian Gulf. If this blockade remains in place, Iran will inflict major damage on countries dependent on oil exports from the gulf and gain leverage in negotiations to end the conflict.
What might Iran demand in terms of concessions from the West before it lifts the blockade? I think that getting Western sanctions lifted will be at the top of the menu. Iran also could demand that Israel withdraw its forces from Gaza and that the Palestinians be allowed free, unencumbered access to Egypt for medial treatment and uninterrupted supplies of food and water.
While Iran keeps the Persian Gulf shuttered it will continue to launch missiles into Israel and any remaining US bases/installations that are still supporting combat operations. I believe that Iran has a sufficient supply of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as thousands of drones, that will enable it to maintain a consistent, heavy fire at targets in Israel and any remaining US bases for at least two months. This will create a major, unsolvable problem for Israel and the US — both are likely to exhaust their supply of Iron Dome, Patriot and THAAD air-defense missiles within three weeks if Iran is able to fire a 100 missiles/drones per day. I believe that Iran is equipped to fight a war of attrition… The US and Israel are not! If this war lasts more than four weeks, the cost to sustain two carrier strike groups, seven F-35A squadrons and 108 KC-135 tankers will approach two billion dollars, and that does not include the cost of the Tomahawk cruise missiles that have been fired into Iran… That cost is $2.5 million per missile. It appears that we have launched 200 Tomahawks in just the first three days of this war, which means the US has expended an estimated half-billion dollars.
Donald Trump has broken his promise to the American people by embroiling the US in another costly, needless war. And in calculating the cost, what number do we place on the military personnel who have been (and will be) killed or grievously wounded in action? Look at the picture of Donald Trump screaming at Pete Hegseth, which is posted at the top of this article… Does that look like a man who believes the war is going his way? I don’t think so.
Judge Napolitano and I discussed the implications of the assassination of the Ayatollah Khomenei:
The following video features Pepe Escobar in the first hour and me in the second:
Nice picture. He looks tired of winning. If he is shocked, then Trump is the biggest imbecile. An elementary school kids could do better than this second iteration of Trump, who seems to be hellbent on doing as much damage as possible in the shortest time. He is succeeding. And he is turning every promise he made when running into a lie. He made the Supreme Leader seem like a mountain of virtue. And he killed him. He seems to have made America disappear, as it never is a topic of discussion. Just more war and assassination talk. And us people cannot find a single thinking person with any character in the entire cabinet. Just bloodsucking grifters or imbeciles who kiss ass. Why does Trump look angry? He is getting exactly what a person with a brain would expect from a constant year of dumbass decisions.
😀 😃