Iran Prepping for Negotiations with the US; Russia and China Have Iran’s Back

Chinese Foreign Minister Wag Yi stands with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazeem Gharibabadi before a meeting regarding the Iranian nuclear issue at Diaoyutai State Guest House on March 14, 2025 in Beijing, China. Photo: Pool via REUTERS

While most of media and public attention in the West are fixated on Trump’s tariff attack on the global economy, the Chinese and Iranians flew to Moscow and met with senior Russian officials. The meeting is described as, “expert-level consultations on the Iranian nuclear program.“

This is happening as the Russian legislative body approved the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran, which was signed by the Russian and Iranian presidents on January 17. I discussed in detail the key portions of that agreement in my April 2 article (click here).

Here is what I wrote about the question of nuclear proliferation:

The security agreement also addresses, albeit indirectly, the US claim that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. According to Article 10:

The Contracting Parties shall closely cooperate on arms control, disarmament, non-proliferation and international security within the framework of relevant international Treaties and international organizations to which they are parties, and regularly consult on these issues.

The key phrase is “non-proliferation.” If Iran proceeds to develop an operational nuclear device, this would invalidate this agreement. The Iranians are not crazed lunatics. They understand that they will have more security with Russia on their side as long as they do not proliferate, than they would if the decided to build a nuclear warhead.

Now the Chinese have joined the meeting. Why? I believe the Russians and Chinese are helping Iran define and explain its nuclear program to the United States in order to persuade Donald Trump that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. As I have noted several times in recent podcasts and articles, the Russians, Chinese and Iranians completed a joint-military exercise in mid-March — it was their seventh consecutive annual exercise. So the three countries have a proven history of working together collaboratively on issues of national security.

One of the key topics they are discussing are the concessions Iran made under the terms of the first JCPOA. Here is what Iran agreed to with respect to limitations on its nuclear program:

• Uranium Enrichment: Iran agreed to enrich uranium only up to 3.67% for 15 years. This level is sufficient for civilian energy purposes but far below weapons-grade levels.

• Centrifuge Reduction: Iran reduced its number of installed centrifuges from approximately 19,000 to 6,104 first-generation centrifuges for 10 years.

• Stockpile Limits: Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium was capped at 300 kilograms for 15 years, representing a reduction of about 97% from pre-agreement levels.

• Medium-Enriched Uranium: Iran eliminated its stockpile of medium-enriched uranium entirely.

• Facility Restrictions: Uranium enrichment was limited to a single facility (Natanz), with other sites converted for non-proliferation purposes.

Here is what the Russian Foreign Ministry said recently with respect to possible negotiations:

Last week, Russia’s Foreign Ministry said that Moscow remains committed to finding solutions to Iran’s nuclear program that respect Tehran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy.

“The use of military force by Iran’s opponents in the context of the settlement is illegal and unacceptable,” Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the ministry, told reporters. “Threats from outside to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure facilities will inevitably lead to an irreversible global catastrophe. These threats are simply unacceptable.”

While Iran has continuously rejected direct talks with Washington, it has said it will consider indirect negotiations through Oman, a longtime channel for communication between the two adversaries. Tehran has also stated that the country’s missile program would be off limits in any such nuclear discussions.

I think Russia and China will encourage Iran to agree, again, to the JCPOA limitations, with the commitment that Russia and China will, along with the United States, guarantee compliance. Iran, for its part, will insist on the lifting of economic sanctions as well as an end to US attempts to subvert the Iranian government.

The major obstacle to reaching an agreement will be the Trump administration’s demand that Iran end all support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. While I am pretty confident that Trump’s negotiators will try to bum-rush Iran into a hasty agreement, this week’s meeting with the Russians and the Chinese will give Iran the confidence that it has the backing of two great powers and will hold firm in protecting its national security interests.

The original JCPOA was a sound agreement and met Donald Trump’s demand for an end to Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program. But Trump withdrew from the agreement and is now back at square one. Here is the question for you to debate: Will Trump, eager to get a diplomatic win in his column, essentially agree to JCPOA 2, or will he make demands that Iran cannot meet and leave himself with the option of attacking Iran, who now has the clear backing of Russia and China?

I recorded the following monologue on Sunday, but it posted yesterday (Monday). I do not comment on the meeting of the Iranians with the Russians and Chinese, but I do discuss in detail the importance of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and the implications for Iran’s security going forward: