Is Donald Trump Only Trying to Derail Negotiations with Iran?
At first glance, Donald Trump’s recent post on Truth Social appears to be a deliberate effort to sabotage the negotiations with Iran to ensure that Tehran ends all efforts to build a nuclear weapon. And maybe that is his intent. But, when you step back and look at the countries who import Iranian oil or petrochemicals, you will realize that Trump is going after three countries… India, China and Turkey, with China as the primary target. Iran is just an excuse. It is typical Trump bombast, he might as well have added the warning: There will be Hell to pay. He talks a big game but, when it comes to closing a deal, tends to soften. Just look at the so-called rare-earth minerals deal that Trump’s Treasury Secretary signed Wednesday night with some low-level Ukrainian official. I think that many people around the world are fed up with Trump’s antics.
Early on Thursday east coast time, I learned that the negotiation between Iran and the US, which was scheduled to take place in Europe on Saturday, had been postponed. According to US press, reports, this action was prompted by a major disagreement between Trump advisors who wanted a deal with Iran and the Zionists in his administration who insist on carrying water for Bibi Netanyahu. But then news broke that Trump was replacing Michael Waltz, his National Security Advisor and sending Waltz to the UN. Instead of announcing a permanent replacement, Trump named Marco Rubio as his acting NSC advisor.
Maybe it is chaos, rather than a desire to cater to the wishes of the Zionists in Tel Aviv, that explains why the US requested a postponement of the Saturday meeting in Europe. Some are speculating that Trump will give the job of NSC advisor to Steve Witkoff, while others suggest Trump could give the job to Keith Kellogg or Michael Anton.
Late on Thursday, the Iranians made their statement. According to Iran’s Press TV:
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told reporters that the next round of indirect talks with the U-S was postponed for logistical and technical reasons. Araghchi said the decision was made jointly by Iran, the U-S and Oman, as mediator. He stressed that there’s no change in Iran’s determination to secure a just deal and a negotiated solution to issues raised during the negotiations. The top diplomat said a just and balanced deal must guarantee an end to sanctions imposed on Iran. The deal must also create confidence that Iran’s nuclear program will forever remain peaceful while ensuring that Iranian rights are fully respected. The talks are focused on achieving a replacement for the 20-15 nuclear deal, which was derailed through the unilateral and illegal U-S withdrawal in 20-18. Tehran says any new deal must provide guarantees that Washington would not quit the agreement again, and truly removes all anti-Iran sanctions.
Trump’s social media post — see image posted at the start of this article — will be viewed by Iran as a hostile act, but it appears that Trump’s actual target is China. As of early 2025, China remains the dominant importer of Iranian oil and petrochemical products, accounting for approximately 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Despite international sanctions, Iran’s oil exports reached around 1.5 million barrels per day in the first eight months of 2024, with China importing the bulk of this volume.
Iran employs a “ghost fleet” of over 400 tankers to circumvent sanctions, utilizing tactics like ship-to-ship transfers and falsified documentation to deliver oil to Chinese ports. These shipments are often rebranded as originating from other countries and sold to independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots.”
In addition to oil, Iran’s petrochemical exports have grown, with China receiving over 80% of methanol and monoethylene glycol (MEG) exports, and about two-thirds of polyethylene shipments .
Other countries importing Iranian oil and petrochemicals include:
United Arab Emirates (UAE): Serves as a trading hub, facilitating re-exports of Iranian products.
Syria and Venezuela: Receive Iranian oil and petrochemicals, often through barter arrangements or political alliances .EIA
Turkey, Iraq, and India: Engage in limited trade with Iran, though volumes are significantly lower than China’s.
If Trump makes good on his threat to add sanctions to those countries that buy Iranian oil and petrochemicals, he is only going to exacerbate the already dismal relations with China. While Trump may hope that the economic pain from the US sanctions will compel Xi Jinping to alter Chinese trade policy and kow tow to Washington, his actions are viewed in China — not just by the leaders, but by the average Chinese man and woman in the street — as an act of war. Given China’s long history of being bullied and punished by Westerners, this is not going to sit well with the Chinese populace.
I had the chance to chat about this, and other matters pertaining to Yemen and Ukraine, with Garland Nixon today: