According to a Wall Street Journal report citing US officials, President Trump has been privately weighing the possibility of declaring victory against Iran and ending the war without securing a nuclear deal, .
Trump reportedly has floated to senior aides that if the US can keep Iran’s nuclear program in check and traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, he would be willing to extend the ceasefire “indefinitely” and effectively declare the conflict over.
In recent meetings, Trump has expressed confidence that Iran is “likely unable to revive its nuclear work” after Operation Midnight Hammer caused heavy damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in June 2025. He believes US intelligence capabilities would catch any Iranian attempts to rebuild, and that the threat of further American strikes would “serve as an enduring deterrent.”
Trump’s key condition for ending the war is that Iran agrees to fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. In exchange, officials expect Trump would lift the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a White House official said that the U.S. has “completed all of its military objectives against Iran,” and the president’s focus is now on “securing the flow of the world’s energy through the Strait of Hormuz.” The reporting suggests Trump is patient and expected to ride out the latest diplomatic snarl, especially so long as gas prices remain where they are.
Let’s assume that this WSJ report is accurate (a big assumption). President Trump is still living in a fantasy world. Despite his recent outbursts about bombing Iran’s nuclear sites, he now seems content to revert to his original declaration from June 2025 that Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated. Count me skeptical. However, if Trump is willing to make that assumption then it removes one item from the negotiation list… Until recently the US, via Pakistani mediators, was pressing Iran to discuss the Iranian nuclear program before addressing the lifting of the blockade and sanctions, and the unfreezing of assets. Iran, for its part, has insisted on the reverse position: i.e., lift the blockade and sanctions, unfreeze the assets and accept Iran’s sovereignty over the Persian Gulf.
If Trump’s decision to declare victory and end the war hinges on Iran, “fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping,” then prospects for a deal are slim. Iran will only agree to allowing ships to transit the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority guidelines it issued on April 22nd. In early May, the Supreme National Security Council and other Iranian bodies publicly confirmed the PGSA’s formation and role. It began administering a permit-based system requiring vessels to submit a detailed “Vessel Information Declaration” (covering ownership, insurance, crew, cargo, etc.) before receiving clearance. Fees for “specialized services” were part of the planned mechanism. Iran is not going to backdown on this point.
The WSJ article hints at the major focus of concern for Trump: the domestic price of gas. I have repeatedly pointed out on several recent podcasts that there is a global shortage of diesel and aviation fuel and that the price effects of this shortage will become more profound with each passing week. Also, as I discussed in a recent article, the damage to the oil and gas infrastructure in the Persian Gulf and the departure of maintenance/repair personnel from the Persian Gulf arab nations, along with the destruction of warehouses that held replacement parts needed to repair damage to the oil and gas terminals, the shortage of diesel and aviation fuel will persist for several months, if not longer.
Trump’s attention at present appears to be focused more on the November mid-term elections than on pursuing a new missile and bombing campaign on Iran. Although Iran has fired on at least five ships trying to transit the Omani channel in the Strait of Hormuz without submitting to the PGSA protocol, Donald Trump has not ordered any new strikes on Iranian targets despite his previous vow to attack Iran for each such incident.
I think that there is growing concern within the Trump administration about the potential for a global economic crisis if the Persian Gulf remains shuttered, especially if this continues as is into September. And this is likely the main factor pushing Trump to do a repeat of the end of Operation Rough Rider… i.e., Declare victory and leave.
Nima and I discussed the crazy rantings of Bibi Netanyahu about attacking Iran on its own:
Mario was sick today so I got to spend some quality time with Brandon Weichart:
My conversation with Sabby Sabs starts at the two hour mark:
Sulaiman and I discussed an Ansar Allah claim that the UAE wanted to build new ports in Yemen as a means of hurting China:
Ah, Operation Rough Rider, March 15 to May 6, 2025. Trump ordered attacks on Yemen in order to subdue the Houthis:
"It cost more than $1 billion and involved the use of approximately 2,000 bombs and missiles, along with the deployment of military assets like Patriot missile defense systems and drones. The operation also resulted in significant civilian casualties, with at least 224 civilians reportedly killed during the campaign.".....from DuckDuckGo AI Search Assistant
Trump spent a lot of money and materiel to kill an injure civilians. And then he declared victory and stopped attacking. One of the drone attacks was on a group of unarmed civilians gathered in a large circle formation. Everyone was killed. Trump said "oops!" I will never forget him saying that.
A global economic crisis will also be exacerbated if the LOG the US Senate passed on Aug 7-- the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026--is approved by the House. 500% and 100% tariffs! The Senate vote was 87 to 11, with one Republican who voted against it--->Sen.Rand Paul.
Here is a piece that Sen.Paul wrote in 2025 that explains the bill that was already in the works...it helped me to more clearly understand tariffs and their impact.
Imposing 500% tariffs on nations that trade with Russia will backfire
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/congress-sanctions-russia/
"The Graham tariff bill could lead to massive secondary tariffs on countries trading with Russia, which may cause those nations to shun Russian oil and disrupt global trading activity. This could result in turmoil in global oil markets, potentially increasing prices for other goods and impacting the U.S. economy negatively." Add this to the still-closed Strait of Hormuz, and all of the time, workers, and materiel needed to repair damaged oil infrastructure, as Larry pointed out.
Lord help.