Is the Trump Administration Using Yemen as an Excuse to Attack Iran?

First, a note about the new author at sonar21.com. Peter Haensler is a Swiss businessman and attorney, who lives in Russia. I met Peter during my recent sojurn in Moscow. I hope you take the time to read his five-part series.

Now, forward to World War III. Short answer to the question i present in the title of this piece… Yes!! Prior to yesterday, the Houthis had not breached the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. The strikes on Houthi sites in Yemen comes after the group said it would restart attacks in the Red Sea if Israel did not honor the terms of the ceasefire and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. But this is not about bringing the Houthis into submission… this is about Iran.

It is no coincidence that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), issued the following on Friday:

Iran, China, and Russia issued a joint statement on March 14 effectively condemning the US “maximum pressure” strategy vis-a-vis Iran.[i] The statement came from a meeting of the Iranian, Chinese, and Russian deputy foreign ministers in Beijing.[ii] The statement called on “relevant parties”—a reference to the United States—to “lift all illegal unilateral sanctions” on Iran. The statement described Iranian nuclear activities as “exclusively for peaceful purposes,” despite numerous indications that Tehran has restarted its nuclear weapons program.[iii] Iran currently has enough high-enriched uranium to build six nuclear weapons, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.[iv] The statement also emphasized the parties’ commitment to strengthening their cooperation through BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Tehran wants to use these institutions to undermine US sanctions and build a parallel economic order to the US-led one.

The publication of this statement coincides with Russia, China and Iran concluding their annual joint-naval military exercise. This is the seventh iteration since 2019. The ISW conveniently ignores the joint-security agreement that Russia and Iran concluded on January 17.

The Iranian-Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signed on January 17, 2025, includes provisions for cooperation in peaceful nuclear energy. Article 23 of the treaty states:

“The Contracting Parties shall promote the development of long-term and mutually beneficial relations for the purpose of implementing joint projects in the area of peaceful use of nuclear energy, including the construction of nuclear energy facilities”.

The agreement supports ongoing collaboration in Iran’s civilian nuclear industry, with Russia’s state-run Rosatom currently assisting in the construction of two new units at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant. This cooperation is seen as a significant contribution to Iran’s energy security and economic growth.

It’s important to note that the treaty also emphasizes adherence to international non-proliferation agreements. Article 10 mentions cooperation on “non-proliferation… within the framework of the relevant international treaties,” which is interpreted as referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This commitment, along with Russia’s historical willingness to support sanctions against Iran for violations of international obligations, provides a critical guarantee against nuclear weapons proliferation… one that the United States should take seriously if it hopes to achieve in any progress with Russia on other issues of mutual concern.

There are unconfirmed claims from Yemen that they fired a combination of missiles and drones at the USS Harry S Truman, an aircraft carrier. The Trump administration, as of this time, has said nothing about such an attack. I am certain of one thing–Yemen will fire missiles and drones at US and Israeli ships in the Red Sea and the US will continue to launch attacks inside Yemen. If the Houthis succeed in hitting a US ship, I think the Trump administration will use this as its casus belli to attack Iran.

Instead of cowering in fear, I believe that Iran is preparing for the likelihood of a US strike and will retaliate against US military installations in the region. This could get out of hand real quick. If the Saudis allow US combat aircraft to launch against Iran, then Saudi oil-installations also are likely to be immolated.

There are no adults around Trump capable of talking him out of pursuing this insane policy. Trump appears to genuinely believe that he can force both Yemen and Iran into submission with a combination of attacks from combat jets and missiles. He, along with the US neocons, are likely to learn a very hard lesson if they follow thru with their threats.