Is the US Military Recommending No Further Strikes on Iran?
I expected the US to renew its attack on Iran today, but that did not happen and, based on recent developments, I think it will not… At least if the views of the officers in command of the war against Iran are considered. Let’s be clear on the chain of command: the Commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM) — Admiral Brad Cooper — reports to Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War, who reports to Donald Trump. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — General Daniel Caine — is Trump’s senior military advisor, but has no command authority over CENTCOM.
Let me introduce you to the three officers in charge of the war against Iran. US Navy Admiral Brad Cooper serves as the (CENTCOM), having assumed the role in August 2025 after previously serving as CENTCOM Deputy Commander and Commander of US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), US Fifth Fleet, and Combined Maritime Forces. In other words, Admiral Cooper is intimately acquainted with the now destroyed US naval base in Bahrain… formerly home to the Fifth Fleet. A surface warfare officer and Naval Academy graduate with extensive operational experience across theaters—including deployments to Afghanistan and leadership in Red Sea operations—he oversees all US military activities across the Middle East and Central Asia, emphasizing naval power projection, partnerships, and deterrence amid regional tensions such as those with Iran.
US Air Force Lt. Gen. Derek France is the Commander of Air Forces Central (AFCENT)/Ninth Air Force and serves as the Combined Forces Air Component Commander (CFACC) for CENTCOM. In this role, he directs all air and space operations, rapid deployment exercises, and combat airpower generation across the theater to maintain readiness and support joint/coalition missions.
US Navy Vice Adm. Curt A. Renshaw commands US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), US Fifth Fleet, and is the Combined Forces Maritime Component Commander (CFMCC), leading maritime security, blockade enforcement, and naval operations in the CENTCOM area of responsibility (including critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz).
These leaders form the senior command triad for CENTCOM’s air and maritime domains under Admiral Cooper’s overall direction. Did you notice what is missing? Yep, Combined Forces Ground Component Commander (CFGCC)… One has not been named, at least not yet. Until a CFGCC is appointed, it is highly unlikely that the US will launch a ground operation of any size in Iran.
The only asset that Trump can employ against Iran is air power, but the results of the operations carried out during the first five weeks of the war showed that US air power, while formidable, failed to significantly reduce Iran’s ability to launch ballistic and cruise missiles and drones. In fact, the US has expended a significant percentage of its precision guided munitions. US press reporting (primarily April 2026) has highlighted significant depletion of US precision-guided munitions and high-end missile stockpiles following the roughly seven-week Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury), based on a major CSIS analysis, Pentagon assessments, and congressional sources.
Key reported depletions include:
At least 45% of Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM, a new ground-launched system replacing ATACMS).
50% of THAAD ballistic missile interceptors. Given the public production‑rate and stock‑depletion data, and assuming no THAAD interceptors have ever been fired in combat, the U.S. inventory as of 31 December 2025 would have been an estimated 530–540 THAAD interceptors produced and delivered through the end of 2025, based on Pentagon/Missile Defense Agency delivery data. However, THAAD interceptors were used during the June 2025 12-day war, and more have been used during the first five weeks of the war with Iran. I suspect the real number is closer to 30%.
Nearly 50% of Patriot air defense interceptors. Here again, I believe that the actual number is much lower. From 2015 thru 2025, the US produced a total of 6,420 Pac3 interceptors. At least 1,000 were expended in Ukraine from 2023 thru 2025 (remember, at least two Pac3s are fired at an inbound ballistic missile) and Russia fired over 12,000 ballistic and cruise missiles during that period. An estimated 2,000 Pac3s were fired at Iranian missiles during the June 2025 war with Iran. During the first five weeks of the new war with Iran, Iran has fired approximately 1,300–1,800+ ballistic missiles and a smaller number of cruise missiles (estimates around 20–50+ confirmed, with some reports of rudimentary or land-attack types) since February 28, 2026, the start of major hostilities in Operation Epic Fury. If the Patriot missiles were used against each of those, a minimum of 2,600 Pac3s would have been launched. That means the actual number of remaining Pac3 interceptors is closer to 1,420. The actual depletion is probably closer to 75%.
30% or more of Tomahawk cruise missiles (with over 1,000 fired, roughly 10x annual production; estimates of 850+ in the first month alone).
Substantial shares of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), SM-3/SM-6, and other long-range precision strike weapons.
Outlets such as the New York Times, CNN, Washington Post, Fortune, and others note the Pentagon spent roughly $24 billion on major munitions in the first seven weeks (with early daily costs estimated at hundreds of millions to ~$1 billion). This has drawn down inventories to levels that create a “near-term risk” for another major conflict, particularly against a near-peer like China in the Pacific.
In light of these numbers, General Derek France, the CFACC, is reportedly recommending no further attacks on Iranian targets. The Admiral in charge of maritime operations also acknowledges that there are severe limitations on what US Naval air power can do in light of Iran’s ability to strike US ships that are 400 miles off the coast of Iran.
The decision about recommending further strikes rests with Admiral Cooper, who I believe is inclined to support the recommendations of his subordinates. I can’t predict what Trump will do… It could go either way.
I started the day with Alex of Reporterfy Media and Cyrus Janssen:
I received a last minute call from Mario’s booker… He wanted to talk about the incident at the White House Press Corp dinner on Saturday. There are some very odd things about the Secret Service performance, which I discuss in detail with Mario. Before talking to Mario, I spoke with an old friend who ran Ronald Reagan’s Secret Service detail six months after Reagan was shot. My friend also developed the training curriculum for the Secret Service, but that curriculum was abandoned for something new when Obama was President. Anyway, he described the Secret Service performance last night as abysmal. For starters, when the shots were heard inside the ballroom, JD Vance, NOT PRESIDENT TRUMP, was the first one escorted quickly off the stage. Trump was not removed until 20 seconds later. This is a clear and inexcusable violation of SS protocol. The PRESIDENT is the one who must be protected above all others. No explanation for this screw up. Second, at the metal detectors, there should have been at least two agents, armed with short barreled long guns in the secure area ready to shoot anyone who tried to breach that security barrier. THAT DID NOT HAPPEN:
I also did an interview with my buddy, George Galloway:
Finally, I closed out a busy Sunday chatting with Sarah at DD Geopolitics:
I agree with Larry that the man, and the sluggy security, are highly suspicious, perhaps theater. Could this really have been staged to gain sympathy for him? Trump is in a big hole, so he thought that being a victim would win back support? I think that anything is possible with him.
I wondered how the CA man thought he could get into the banquet room, and then how he was going to use three kinds of weapons to accomplish his intentions: shotgun, handgun, and multiple knives. A manifesto he allegedly wrote has been found in CA. i have not read it, but why was it posted online less than 24 hours after his takedown? Shouldn't such a thing be investigated, the assailant questioned, his family and friends/co-workers be questioned before publicizing?
Very interesting that Vance was hustled out before Trump. I also don't undertand why the VP and Speaker of the House were all in the same room. What if an explosive was set in the room, and it blew--killing the chain of succession all at once? Horribly sloppy security, or security that was following a script. Reminds me of the horribly sloppy Butler, PA security.
😀 😃