Is Tren De Aragua a CIA Operation In Order to Justify an Attack on Venezuela?

Maduro and Assad

You will likely ask: Why is your headline about Venezuela but you begin your article by discussing the new leader in Syria? A fair question, and here is the simple answer: Given the massive build-up of US forces off the coast, is the supposed threat posed by Tren de Aragua genuine, or is it an intelligence operation designed to create a justification to carry out a regime change in Venezuela?

We know from publicly available evidence that the CIA has a history of providing support to radical Islamic groups in contravention of publicly-stated US policy to oppose such groups. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which is headed by the newly installed president of Syria, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, is the latest example.

Al-Sharaa was born in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to a Syrian Sunni Muslim family from the Golan Heights, and he grew up in Damascus, Syria. He joined al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) shortly before the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and fought in the Iraqi insurgency for three years. He was captured by American forces in 2006 and imprisoned until 2011.

After his release, coinciding with the start of the Syrian Revolution, he founded the al-Nusra Front in 2012, an al-Qaeda affiliate aiming to topple Bashar al-Assad’s regime during the Syrian civil war, which happened to coincide with US policy… Just a coincidence?

By 2016, al-Sharaa cut ties with al-Qaeda, rebranded his group, and merged with other factions to form Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controlled much of Idlib Governorate. HTS operated a technocratic administration known as the Syrian Salvation Government, providing some public services but also suppressing dissent. I believe that this separation from al-Qaeda coincided with him becoming affiliated with Western intelligence organizations.

Although he was brought to power with the assistance of Western intelligence organizations, multiple reports and investigations from multiple sources confirm that forces aligned with Ahmed al-Sharaa and his government in Syria have continued to carryout widespread sectarian violence, persecution, and massacres targeting religious minorities including Christians, Alawites, Druze, and Shia Muslims. Key points include:

• From March 2025, a series of mass killings targeting Alawite communities occurred, involving door-to-door interrogations and executions based solely on sectarian identity. These massacres resulted in over a thousand deaths and involved Syrian government forces and allied militias. Al-Sharaa denied direct responsibility and blamed remnants of the Assad regime, but human rights groups have implicated forces loyal to him in the violence. Videos have surfaced showing Ministry of Defense personnel engaging in sectarian killing operations .

• The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom reported ongoing religious persecutions by forces loyal to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which al-Sharaa once commanded. Persecutions against Alawites, Druze, Shia Muslims, and Christians have included mass killings, kidnappings, intimidation, and looting by Islamist militias affiliated with the new Syrian government .

• Despite pledges from al-Sharaa’s government to protect religious minorities, evidence indicates continued violence and discrimination. Christian and Druze populations report fear and suffering under the new regime, which retains militant elements associated with terrorist designations .

• Human rights organizations such as Amnesty International have called for full investigations into the civilian killings and human rights abuses under al-Sharaa’s government.

This evidence shows that the situation for religious minorities under Ahmed al-Sharaa’s rule is precarious, with significant reports of sectarian violence and persecution alongside official denials or counterclaims from the government. And yet, the US government aligned itself with this head-chopper.

Based on this precedent, it is not a wild leap to ask the question: Is the CIA involved with creating the Tren de Aragua threat in order to justify a regime change in Venezuela? Circumstantial evidence says, yes!

First Mention in News Media

The earliest documented mention of Tren de Aragua in US news media appears in a June 9, 2024, CNN article titled Tren de Aragua: The Venezuelan gang infiltrating the US. This report detailed the gang’s origins in a Venezuelan prison, its expansion into South America, and emerging activities in the US, including over 70 linked cases in law enforcement documents. Prior mentions in international media (e.g., in Peru in 2018) exist, but this marks the first significant US-focused coverage, coinciding with federal investigations into its US operations. Pay attention to the 2018 date… More about that in a bit.

First Mention in a U.S. Government Publication

The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) first officially mentioned Tren de Aragua on July 10, 2024, in a press release sanctioning it as a transnational criminal organization. The release highlighted its involvement in human smuggling, trafficking, gender-based violence, money laundering, and drug trafficking across the Western Hemisphere, including the US. This predates subsequent actions, such as DHS references to arrests starting in May 2023 (retrospectively noted in 2025 reports) and later designations in 2025.

No publicly declassified or confirmed CIA operation specifically named for the purpose of overthrowing Nicolás Maduro’s government exists in available records. The US government has consistently denied direct involvement in coup attempts or assassinations, labeling such Venezuelan claims as categorically false. However, reporting reveals a secret Trump-era CIA-assisted covert initiative aimed at regime change through non-violent disruption, such as a 2019 hack of Venezuela’s military payroll system to sow discontent among troops. This unnamed program involved internal CIA debates over resources and alignment with broader U.S. policy, but it did not achieve Maduro’s ouster and remains partially classified.

These reflect a pattern of US maximum pressure tactics (sanctions, indictments, cyber ops) since 2018, but no single, named CIA overthrow operation has been acknowledged or declassified. Maduro frequently accuses the CIA of plots to justify repression, though evidence is often lacking. Did you catch the date in the preceding sentence? The maximum pressure to oust Maduro started in 2018, which just happens to coincide with the first mention of Tren de Aragua in the Peruvian press in 2018. Hmmmm… Just a coincidence? I know based on my previous experience that it is highly likely that CIA-assets were used to plant stories in the media, including social media, to build a narrative that Tren de Aragua is a threat to the US that justifies the use of military force.

Is it possible that Donald Trump signed a classified finding in 2018 that authorized a CIA covert action program to remove Nicholas Maduro from power and is it likely that program is still in operation? I think so… What do you think?