Is Trump Serious About Negotiations with Iran?

I’ll give you my answer up front… NO! Trump’s claims on Monday and Tuesday that the US and Iran are talking is false in my opinion. During previous talks with Iran — including the last round in Geneva on February 26 — the communications were indirect. An Oman government official was the intermediary… He would talk to Witkoff and Kushner in one room and then trundle off to another room where he would talk with the Iranian delegation. Any communication between Iran and the US is being carried out through intermediaries.

I believe Trump’s positive spin that Iran is ready to make a deal is nothing more than market manipulation with the goal being to lower the price of oil and boost the US stock market. Trump’s Monday announcement of a so-called five day ceasefire was intended to persuade US traders that the war with Iran is nearing a conclusion. I think Trump will continue issuing upbeat, positive statements until Friday then, after the markets close, he will announce that negotiations have collapsed because of Iranian intransigence.

Then what? Let’s first look at recent remarks by retired US General Keith Kellogg:

We don’t necessarily have to send troops into Iran, but we need to capture Kharg Island. We need to do it the way the Romans did. We need to put legions on the ground to secure the territory. I understand it’s risky. There’s always risk. But these guys, these young men and women, they understand the risk they’re taking to capture Kharg and open the Strait of Hormuz. Marine combat teams can open the lower part of the strait. And then I’d call on the 82nd Airborne Division or the Rangers to take Kharg Island. That way, I could essentially control the flow of oil out of Iran.

Taking Kharg Island will not open the Strait of Hormuz. All it will accomplish, besides a temporary disruption of the flow of Iranian oil which US Treasury Secretary Bessent has tacitly acknowledged is critical for keeping the price of oil from exploding, is to expose US forces on Kharg to an unrelenting barrage of drones, missiles and artillery. That means significant, if not massive, casualties for those US forces. Ditto for any attempt by US Marines to “open the lower part of the Strait.” With what? Neither the Marines nor the soldiers on Kharg will have heavy weapons, and Iran’s ability to shutter the Strait is not dependent on having their own troops on those islands. Iran, notwithstanding the presence of US troops on those islands, will still be able to attack any ship that tries to traverse the Strait of Hormuz with drones, missiles, maritime drones and torpedoes.

Amid the threat of a ground invasion of Iran, the Iranian Defense Council issued a statement on how it would respond:

“Any attempt by the enemy to encroach upon Iranian coasts or islands will naturally, according to common military procedure, cause all access points and communication lines in the Persian Gulf and the coasts to be mined with various types of naval mines, including floating mines releasable from the coasts;”

“In which case practically the entire Persian Gulf for long periods will find a status similar to the Strait of Hormuz, and this time alongside the Strait of Hormuz, the entire Persian Gulf will in practice be blocked, and the responsibility for it will be on the invader.”

Unless Donald Trump reconsiders his plan, we are likely to see the US attempt to seize both Kharg and Qeshm islands. If you read my previous piece (here), it appears that Trump will use both Delta Force and Seal Team 6, along with two Ranger battalions and the 82nd Airborne’s 1st Brigade Combat Team, to sieze the islands. But then what? Those troops will be sitting targets and will face a serious risk of being cutoff from resupply. If Iran releases a tsunami of mines, then the only option will be aerial resupply, which likely means those aircraft will face withering fire from Iranian shore batteries and air defense systems. Instead of opening the Strait of Hormuz, the anticipated US military action will make it virtually impossible for any ship to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.

The complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz will further worsen the economic damage to the world economy. In addition to shutting off the flow of 20% of the world’s oil supply, along with liquid natural gas and fertilizer, there are other unanticipated, damaging consequences. The sulfuric acid shortage caused by the Iran war is now threatening commodity production.

Sulfuric acid is essential to extract metals from rock. The market was already tight, with prices up ~500% even before the conflict. The Middle East accounts for ~24% of global sulfur production, and producers typically hold only a few weeks to 2 months of supply. Without sulfuric acid, production drops. Around 20% of global copper, ~50% of uranium, and ~30% of nickel production depend directly on it.

With critical energy infrastructure being destroyed, these shortages won’t disappear even if the Strait is reopened… they will persist.

If Trump goes ahead with this harebrained scheme over the upcoming weekend, or on Monday or Tuesday next week, the effect on the oil market will be catastrophic. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but the massive movement of troops and material that is being reported in open sources signals that something more ominous than an intimidation tactic is afoot.

I had a brief chat with my Italian/Brazilian buddy today:

I had my first conversation with Myron Gaines, a former DHS Special Agent. A delightful young man: