Lest anyone think that Vladimir Putin is flying solo and making Russian policy based on his own personal whims… think again! A couple of statements today — the first, from Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, and the second, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov — reinforce my point that the Russian leadership is united in their view of negotiations with Ukraine… and they aren’t leaning towards making concessions.
Mr. Medvedev made the most consequential statement during his speech on May 20, 2025, at the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum… Medvedev said:
“Ukraine has one last chance to preserve the remnants of its statehood. If it misses this chance, it will cease to exist as a state. Russia will then have no choice but to advance further and resolve the issue definitively.”
Let’s call this move, Istanbul 3. At the March 2022 negotiations in Istanbul between Russia and Ukraine, the Russians agreed in principle to keep the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That was Istanbul 1.0. In June 2024, Putin spoke to senior officials Russian Foreign Ministry and presented Istanbul 2.0, which now included Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporhyzhia and Kherson as Russian territory, certified via a referenda in September 2022 in each of the four oblasts. With today’s statement regarding Ukraine’s political future, Medvedev introduced what appears to be Istanbul 3.0.
Medvedev went on to make three more critical observations:
Warning Against Foreign Troop Deployment:
The appearance of troops of the so-called ‘coalition’ in Ukraine will be viewed by Russia as a relapse of a military threat with all the ensuing consequences, including their recognition as a legitimate military target. At the same time, it is good that the US has recorded its position on this issue. I hope that with the help of states that have not yet lost the remnants of their sanity, the collective West will be able to restrain the impulses of individual brainless, but very militant politicians.”
Global Catastrophe Warning:
“humanity is on the verge of a global catastrophe,” attributing this to ongoing armed conflicts, confrontations among nuclear powers, and the exacerbation of chronic global issues.
Ukraine’s Sovereignty Questioned: Medvedev claimed that Ukraine is a “failed state” and asserted that there are no Ukrainian officials with the authority to conclude a peace treaty with Russia, raising doubts about Ukraine’s sovereignty and leadership legitimacy.
Medvedev was not alone in outlining the future of Ukraine if it rejects Russia’s offer of negotiations. Foreign Minister Lavrov made the following point in a speech today:
Russia will not leave the Orthodox people of Ukraine in trouble and will fight to restore the rights of the Orthodox Church.
Whether by diplomacy or military force, Russia will secure the religious freedom of the Orthodox people of Ukraine.
In other disturbing news, the Middle East Spectator reports that Iran has declined Oman’s invitation to attend the fifth round of nuclear talks with the U.S. in Rome on Friday. The negotiations are at an impasse, with the US demanding Iran end all uranium enrichment and Iran refusing. This news was accompanied by a CNN report:
This may be nothing more than Zionist saber rattling, but I am inclined to believe that this report reflects Netanyahu’s desperate, foolish intent to set West Asia on fire. When it comes to hubris, Netanyahu is a genuine malevolent professional.
I did a relatively short session with Danny Davis today. We focused primarily on Trump’s new boondoggle, but also discussed Marco Rubio’s disgraceful comments on the genocide underway in Gaza.