Looks Like Trump is Walking Away from the Ukrainian Military Casino

THAAD Launcher

Today, the Pentagon announced that the Ukrainian party is over:

The U.S. is halting some shipments of weapons to Ukraine amid concerns that its own stockpiles have declined too much, officials said Tuesday, a setback for the country as it tries to fend off escalating attacks from Russia.

Certain munitions were previously promised to Ukraine under the Biden administration to aid its defenses during the more than three-year-old war. The pause reflects a new set of priorities under President Donald Trump and came after Defense Department officials scrutinized current U.S. stockpiles and raised concerns.

This means that Ukraine WON’T be getting any more:

• PAC3 Patriot missiles

• 155mm artillery shells

• GMLRS rockets

• Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles

While the White House insisted that it is just “putting American interests first”, the move reveals that the US has a serious problem in manufacturing certain weapon systems and that supplies are at or near critical levels.

Consider that has happened with the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system aka THAAD, which was deployed to Israel. The United States currently produces about 50–60 THAAD missiles (interceptors) per year at a price of $13 million per missile. The production number reflects recent production rates as of 2025, which have increased to meet both domestic and international demand. Lockheed Martin, the primary manufacturer, previously reported manufacturing as many as eight missiles per month, which would equate to a maximum of 96 per year, but more recent and widely cited estimates place the annual output closer to 50–60 interceptors. Let me repeat that… 50–60 a year. This production rate is significant given the high cost and limited global stockpile of THAAD missiles.

During a the 12-day war with Iran, the U.S. expended 15–20% of its global THAAD arsenal supporting Israel, highlighting both the high operational demand and the relatively slow pace at which these interceptors can be replenished. Had the war continued another two weeks, it is likely that the US would have exhausted its supply of THAADs.

We have witnessed a similar shortage with the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, which were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites on June 22. Although the precise number in the U.S. inventory is not publicly disclosed, experts believe that the current U.S. stockpile is likely fewer than 50 units. However, Boeing, in partnership with the McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma, currently is building between 72 and 96 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) per year. This is based on a recent production expansion completed in mid-2024, which increased output from two bombs per month (24 per year) to at least six, and potentially up to eight, bombs per month. Therefore, the new annual production rate is estimated at 72 to 96 units.

And then there are the Patriot missiles. Lockheed Martin has that contract as well and reportedly produces 550 missiles per year. A Patriot missile launcher can carry a different number of missiles depending on the missile type:
• PAC-2 missiles: Up to 4 missiles per launcher.
• PAC-3 CRI missiles: Up to 16 missiles per launcher.
• PAC-3 MSE missiles: Up to 12 missiles per launcher.

Usually, there are at least two Patriot missiles fired for every approaching threat, such as a missile or drone. Two days ago, Russia fired over 500 missiles and drones into Ukraine. If Ukraine still had functioning Patriot missile launchers and a supply of missiles, that Russian attack would have depleted both the US and Ukraine’s supply of missiles.

Has anyone in Washington learned a damn thing from the war in Ukraine? Do they now understand that the US is incapable of matching the Russians or the Chinese in the production of weapons expended on the battlefield? I don’t think so. Trump keeps pounding his chest, while insisting America has the greatest military in the world. Here is a newsflash Don: No you don’t.

Meanwhile in Moscow, there is a glimmer of hope that not all European leaders are insane. Putin and Macron chatted by phone on July 1 and it seemed to go well. Here is the Kremlin readout:

The two leaders held a detailed discussion on the situation in the Middle East in the context of the Iran-Israel confrontation and the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

🔘 Putin and Macron emphasized the special responsibility of Russia and France as permanent members of the UN Security Council in maintaining global peace and security, particularly in the Middle East, as well as in upholding the nuclear non-proliferation regime. They underscored the importance of respecting Iran’s legitimate right to develop a peaceful nuclear program and to continue fulfilling its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, including cooperation with the IAEA.

🔘 Both leaders advocated resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis — as well as other regional conflicts — exclusively through political and diplomatic means. They agreed to stay in contact to possibly coordinate positions.

🔘 Discussing the situation in Ukraine, Putin reiterated that the conflict is a direct result of Western policies, which for years ignored Russia’s security interests, fostered an anti-Russian foothold in Ukraine, and encouraged violations of the rights of Russian-speaking populations. He noted that the West continues to prolong hostilities by supplying modern weapons to Kiev.

🔘 Regarding prospects for peace, the Russian president reaffirmed Russia’s fundamental stance: any potential agreements must be comprehensive, long-term, and address the root causes of the conflict while reflecting the new territorial realities.

🔘 The conversation between Putin and Macron was substantive.

Putin did not budge an inch as far as Russia’s terms for a negotiated end to the war. This marked the first polite conversation between the two since September 2022. Putin and Macron discussed their respective roles on the UN Security Council. Based on my brief experience there in April 2024, I can state without reservation that the French representative is a total prick. So the fact that Putin and Macron are talking about how the UNSC can play a more constructive role could indicate that the French ambassador is going to be instructed to start acting and speaking like a diplomat.

What do you think Trump’s reaction will be when he finds out that Putin and Macron are chatting? My guess is that he will be upset that he is no longer the only world leader in Putin’s life. However, did you catch what Putin said about Western responsibility?

He noted that the West continues to prolong hostilities by supplying modern weapons to Kiev.

Could it be that the Pentagon’s announcement that it is no longer supplying “modern weapons” to Ukraine was a signal to Putin that the US is ending its role in Ukraine? Very interesting.