NATO Playing with Fire in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea

The video attached at the end of this article provides a good summary of recent military encounters between Russian and NATO forces in the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. During the past three years of the Special Military Operation (SMO), Russia has rarely interfered with NATO intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (aka ISR) flights in these areas. It appears that Russia has decided on a more aggressive approach to challenge NATO ISR missions by employing electronic warfare to disable navigation systems, sending up Russian planes to intercept and locking on to NATO targets with Russian air defense systems.

Not surprisingly, NATO countries — France in particular — are vociferously complaining about these actions, while ignoring their own responsibility for provoking the Russian reaction. Russian challenges to NATO flights has increased in the wake of President Putin convening a meeting of his national security advisors. I do not believe this is a coincidence.

The West remains intent on securing Ukraine as proxy to weaken Russia and to get access to Ukraine’s natural resources. These two objectives go hand-in-hand. Getting control of Ukraine’s mineral wealth remains a priority for Donald Trump:

“The critical minerals offer was a clear security moment for Ukraine. It has critically important resources like titanium, uranium and others. And if Russia gets its hands on those resources, it will be a disaster for Kyiv’s allies,” said a top official familiar with negotiations, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But the minerals gambit has since turned into a political disaster, and Ukraine may not even have all of the vast resource wealth it promised. Added to that, getting any minerals out of the ground will cost billions and could take decades — not close to the timeline Trump seemed to envision.

I think the Russians clearly understand this and are not going to agree to a ceasefire until the demands Putin laid out in his June 2024 speech to the Russian Foreign Ministry officials are met. In the meantime, Russia will continue to expand its offensive operations. If the West refuses to accept the demands of the Russian government, Putin has made it clear that the matter will be settled on the field of battle.