New Variables Complicating US and Iran Negotiations

I want to draw your attention to two news items that may complicate, if not derail, President Trump’s hopes of securing a peace agreement with Iran. Pakistan, as Pepe Escobar and I reported last week, continues to play a central role in trying to craft a solution that will be acceptable to Iran and the US. Iranian state media reported that Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on Saturday for talks with Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. Naqvi said he was carrying a “special letter” from his country’s army chief and prime minister to Iran’s Khamenei, ISNA reported.

Releasing Iranian frozen assets remains a key demand for Iran. Last Thursday, CNN interviewed Mohsen Rezaei, former IRGC commander and current military adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Rezaei told CNN that any US-Iran peace deal depends on Washington releasing $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, warning that the US would “enter into a dark corridor” should it resume fighting. Rezaei described the $24 billion figure as a “test” of US credibility: “If President Donald Trump wants a deal with Iran, this amount is the test. It’s a test the US must pass to open the path to a deal.”

Well, it looks like US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not get the memo about reaching a deal with Iran. Bessent reportedly has directed a team to assess costs for damage already inflicted on Gulf allies by Iran with the goal of using those assets to pay for repairs to the damaged infrastructure of the Gulf arabs. Iran will certainly refuse to accept that condition.

I am sure that some Trump supporters will chalk this up to Trump’s negotiating style, but at a time when talks are reportedly stalled (that was what Mohsen Rezaei told CNN) why stake out a position that will anger Iran?

On the other hand are the sins of Israel. I don’t know if the Trump White House played a role in feeding the New York Times the story about Israel’s increased spying on the Trump administration in order to increase pressure on Israel or if this was an unauthorized leak that caught Trump and Pete Hegseth by surprise. Remember, Hegseth is the ultimate civilian authority over DIA after Donald Trump. While the NY Times is treating this as some dramatic revelation, it ain’t news to me. I have two words that encapsulate the issue: Jonathan Pollard. Here’s what the NY Times has to say:

Recent U.S. intelligence reports have raised concerns about Israeli spy agencies eavesdropping on American negotiators working on a peace deal with Iran, amid rising concern over a more general counterintelligence threat by Israel. . . .

The reports include concerns that Israel has stepped up its efforts to eavesdrop on senior American officials, including Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s top negotiator, Elbridge A. Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy official, and one of his main deputies, Michael P. DiMino IV.

Another report, written by the Defense Intelligence Agency and other military intelligence offices and focused on earlier events going back several years, said that the counterintelligence threat level posed by Israel had been increased in recent weeks to the top level, from high to critical. The report, to which the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency contributed, outlines various efforts by Israel to spy on American military personnel and government officials.

I think this is a follow up to the Axios report earlier this past week that featured Donald Trump cursing at Bibi Netanyahu. While experienced intelligence officers are not surprised by this — hell, Israel has been doing this for years — the framing of the story certainly paints Israel in a very negative light and will add to growing anti-Israel sentiment in the United States. Maybe Trump is serious about ending the war with Iran.

Israel did further damage to its already shredded reputation by attacking a Lebanese army military vehicle traveling on a road between Kfar Tebnit and Khardali in the Nabatieh area of southern Lebanon, killing a brigadier general, a captain, and a soldier. The IDF admitted it struck the vehicle, and tried to justify the attack by saying it had identified it “moving suspiciously” toward Israeli forces near the village of Kfar Tebnit.

The Lebanese Armed Forces, not surprisingly, were outraged. They released the following statement:

The continued, deliberate, and repeated Israeli aggression against Lebanon, its people and its army only strengthens our resolve, faith and determination.

This latest act of Israeli murder comes just days after a renewed ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon that was brokered by the US. That didn’t last long. Israel has not stopped bombing across parts of southern Lebanon since the ceasefire was first announced on April 16. This reinforces Iran’s position with respect to its demand that there will be no agreement with the US until Israel pulls out of Lebanon and stops the killing. A terrific goal, but not likely to be realized.

Here is my second Counter Currents post this week… I am experimenting with a new, shorter format. Let me know if you like this or prefer the longer interviews/commentaries:

Back for a repeat performance with Sulaiman Ahmed: