No Negotiations, Iran Will Retaliate, the War Will Escalate
Well, that didn’t take too long. Friday’s false optimism about an imminent peace deal with Iran following Donald Trump’s claims that Iran had agreed to surrender to the US demands, fed wild swing to the positive side in the US stock market and crashed oil prices. Once again, it turns out that Trump was merely manipulating the financial and commodity markets and benefiting wealthy insiders.
There will be no more negotiations between the US and Iran until the US lifts its naval blockade and complies with the 10-points Iran delivered two weeks ago.
On Sunday, Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks in Pakistan with the US this week due to America’s demands and ongoing naval blockade in the Gulf:
“Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire,” the IRNA state-run outlet said.
Relations between Iran and the US further frayed on Sunday when the Iranian commercial vessel, TOUSKA, which was en route towards Iran, was intercepted and seized by the US Navy. The vessel has crossed the Arabian Sea into the Gulf of Oman. Kpler’s map shows the last tracked location of the vessel, which was five hours ago (see above). The boarding of the vessel occurred in international waters. The ship is under US, UK, and EU sanctions. Iran vows it will retaliate.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to control who gets to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s 3 conditions for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz remains intact:
1️⃣ Ships must be commercial, and warships are PROHIBITED. Neither the ships nor their cargo must be linked to hostile countries.
2️⃣ Ships must pass through a route designated by Iran.
3️⃣ Ships’ passage must be coordinated with Iranian forces responsible for the passage.
As I write this late Sunday evening in Florida, one Iranian Telegram channel observed that Iran will be covered with heavy clouds over the next 48 hours… providing excellent cover for launching a new round of ballistic missiles at US and Israeli targets.
Trump is threatening, again, to carry out a massive attack on Iranian power networks and bridges. Iran, for its part, has already programmed its ballistic missiles for retaliatory strikes on the Gulf Arab nations. If Iran succeeds in largely destroying the supply of electricity in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, then life in those countries — with no air conditioning — will be intolerable by mid-May. Professor Marandi is correct in noting that the high temperatures in those countries will force a mass evacuation. Iran, by virtue of its mountains, has a different weather pattern and is not plagued by the blistering temperatures common to a Gulf Arab late Spring and early Summer.
Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson and I were hosted by Randy Credico on Friday on his show, Live on the Fly:
Iran needs a maritime lawyer to block the U.S. in an international court and get reparations for illegal activity related to bombing and seizing Iran’s ship.
We all know how the ridiculous lies justifying this illegal war has morphed. What Mossad and the CIA did after Bessent initiated sanctions that hurt people in Iran is horrifying. They burned police officers, who were unarmed at the protest. They stopped people at checkpoints and murdered them in cold blood. They caught busses of people on fire and burned the people to death. They shot police officers and peaceful protesters. There’s a lot more and it’s horrific. You know the rest of the lies.
Iran needs to immediately bring this to an international body to change this war into a treaty like The Montreux Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits.
It states:
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit.
The Montreux Convention is an international agreement governing the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits in Turkey.
It was signed on 20 July 1936 and went into effect on 9 November 1936. The treaty addressed the question about who should control the strategically vital Strait between the Black and Mediterranean seas. This is a natural waterway, like the Strait of Hormuz.
Turkey receives a management fee. Iran could have been getting a management fee for the last 85-years.
Desire to buy our debt fell off a cliff. Bessent just bought back bonds in a greater amount than in all of U.S. history. As bonds mature, our allies are cashing out. It could signal a protest of our illegal activities in Iran. It could signal lack of faith in our ability to pay our bills.
We spend all of the money we collect in taxes by May. We borrow to float running the government for the rest of the year. We are are on track to be $2.5-million in the red if we leave Iran tomorrow.
We cannot afford the Iran war. The administration doesn’t even have an estimate of direct costs. The administration doesn’t have a budget.
We are going to owe Iran money for reconstruction just like we had to pay in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The total direct and indirect cost of the Afghanistan war was $6.5 trillion for military costs, reconstruction costs and interest.
U.S. budget estimates of direct costs of the Iraq war were $50- to $60-billion.
The actual direct costs of the Iraq war were 50,000 times greater than the estimate.
Social security is $1.5-trillion a year.
The cost of the Afghan war was 4.3x larger than our social security annual budget.
If passed, we will have a $1.5-trillion dollar War Department budget.
40% of the total U.S. budget will be consumed by social security and the war budget.
We are a driving at a brick wall and no one wants to tap the breaks.