Russia is in No Rush to Retaliate
Russia’s response to Ukraine’s spate of terrorist attacks over the weekend is best captured by the phrase, “Revenge is a dish best served cold.” This means that revenge is often more satisfying or effective when it is delayed, carefully planned, and not acted on in the heat of emotion.
As I noted in my previous piece, Russia’s military doctrine vis-a-vis Ukraine has been, until now, described as a Special Military Operation. In response to the drone attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber bases, Putin has now characterized the military mission as a Counterterrorism Operation. When the Russian government states that it is treating Ukraine as a “counterterrorism operation,” it signifies a strategic shift in rhetoric, tactics and the legal framework, allowing for expanded military and domestic security measures. Most in the West forget that Russia fought a ten-year counterterrorism war in Chechnya, prevailing in the end by exterminating the threat posed by Salafist muslims.
Under Russian law, declaring a counterterrorism operation grants authorities the power to:
Restrict Movement: Impose curfews and control over civilian movement in designated areas.
Control Communications: Monitor and limit media and personal communications.
Conduct Searches: Carry out searches and detentions without standard judicial oversight.
By framing its military actions as counterterrorism, Russia aims to escalate its use of military force: This means intensified military operations against Ukraine going forward. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, today announced that Russia would no longer sit for negotiations with Ukraine about ending the war. Instead, Russia would confine its diplomatic efforts to “working delegations” that will address technical issues such as freeing POWS and returning the corpses of Ukrainian soldiers. No more Istanbul. That process is now kaput.
Ukraine’s attacks over the weekend have strengthened public support for destroying, via military means, the “terrorist” threat posed by Ukraine. I have heard from several Russian folks, as well as Pepe Escobar, that the anger towards Ukraine is widespread and that the overwhelming majority of Russian citizens are clamoring for a tough, devastating response. Putin and his generals are paying attention to the public sentiment and are now engaged in meticulous planning for launching massive strikes on Ukrainian assets implicated in these attacks. Putin made that point clearly and strongly to Donald Trump during their conversation on Wednesday. While Russia is not likely to strike outside the territorial boundaries of Ukraine, it will hit sites linked to foreign interests, which is likely to include British targets, still operating in Ukraine.
As night fell on the east coast in the United States, Russia launched a barrage of missiles and drones at targets in Ternopol, Kiev, Lvov, Lutsk, Rovno and Khmelnitsky. A video from Kiev shows a Patriot battery launching at least four missiles in a failed attempt to intercept an Iskander missile. It appears that multiple Russian missiles exploded near the site of the Patriot battery. While these strikes represent a surge compared to the previous days, this is not the retaliation that Putin informed Trump was coming. The big strike is still in the planning process.
Today, I discussed these issues with Garland Nixon:
" A nuke up the poop chute". Fkn love it!
Keep up the good work Larry.
In meantime retaliation was delivered