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ikester8's avatar

"Over the course of the summer, Russia secures control of the Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts. At that point, Russia controls all territory east of the Dnieper River. If Ukraine then agrees to negotiate on Russian terms, Putin would be in a position to offer to relinquish some, if not all, of the captured territory."

That's a mighty big if, given the stalled progress through the Ukrainian drone swarms these days. I think Russia will concentrate on securing the full territories of the four oblasts they're already added. The only scenario I see where they roll up Dnepropetrovsk, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkiv is if the Ukrainian military suffers full collapse and nothing stops the Russians from reaching the Dnieper. In that case, Putin may well hold referendums, but he would likely wait until after the terms of the surrender are negotiated to determine how many oblasts Russia will incorporate. Odessa is the real prize, but the others would help to secure the peace.

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