Syrsky is Out, The Saudis are Blockaded

Major General Mykhailo Drapatly

Did you hear the story about Ukraine’s glorious defeat of the Russian army? Western media outlets during the last four weeks have been touting the amazing success of the Ukrainian army. So ask yourself… If you’re winning the war with Russia why do you fire the commanding general who is bringing you this massive victory? Well, that’s what Cocaine Cowboy Zelensky just did. Late on Tuesday in Kyiv news broke that Zelensky dumped General Syrski, Commander of the Ukrainian armed forces, and replaced him with Mykhailo Drapatly. Zelensky also axed Chief of the General Staff Gnatov.

Zelensky has been under fire politically since he sacked the young Defense Minister, Mikhail Fedorov, with Ukrainian citizens flooding the streets of Kyiv and Lvov to protest Federov’s removal. The move to dump Fedorov reportedly stemmed from his repeated clashes with General Syrski over Fedorov’s decision to spend scare government resources on drone programs rather than using the money to snag new recruits to populate the sagging Ukrainian front. Firing Federov set off a storm of protests across Ukraine and Zelensky apparently decided that booting Syrski might calm the storm. Despite the protests, Zelensky named current acting minister Evgeniy Khmara as his preferred pick for the job instead — freezing Fedorov out.

Man, just think what might have happened if Syrski was losing the war (sarcasm intended).

With regards to Drapatly, East Calling reports:

The newly appointed commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Drapaty, has been put on the wanted list in Russia, according to data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

Previously, the Investigative Committee of Russia (SK) had filed charges against Drapaty in absentia. According to the agency, in 2017 and 2019, he, along with Viktor Nikolyuk, exercised overall command of the operation of the Ukrainian Joint Forces. Under their leadership, Ukrainian militants carried out more than 70 shelling attacks on populated areas in the DPR and LPR, resulting in the deaths and injuries of 154 people.

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Meanwhile, back on the shores of the Red Sea, the Houthis declared a blockade on tankers hauling, or trying to haul, Saudi oil. While the Saudis have protested and vowed to retaliate, MBS faces a real dilemma. If he launches a new attack on Yemen the Houthis are likely to respond by launching missiles that would likely destroy Saudi Arabia’s only oil depot on the Red Sea — i.e., Yanbu. The smart move would be for the Saudis to seek a negotiated settlement that would protect their current export of 4 million barrels per day of oil from Yanbu. But, if recent events are any guide, there has not been much evidence of intelligent strategizing on the part of the Saudis.

For the foreseeable future the Saudis will be sending their oil tankers through the Suez Canal, which Egypt will appreciate as it collects the passage fee, but this route adds forty days of sailing to reach Asian markets. If the Saudis opt to use violence than we could be looking at a complete shutdown of oil exports from the Saudis.

As I write this I am waiting for news about Iran’s response to today’s US bombing campaign, which reportedly hit three nuclear sites: Bushehr, Isfahan and the Khojir (or Khojir Missile Base / Khojir Nuclear Research Center). Iran previously has vowed a decisive response to such attacks… We’ll see.

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I am now doing a regular Tuesday chat with Jelena and Ryan of East Calling/The Winers. We focused on the weapons shortage confronting the US in the war with Iran:

Nima and I discussed the news that B-1 Bombers had launched from the UK:

Mario and I discussed the latest US bombing of Iran and the implication of attacks on Iran’s nuclear power plants:

I spent my conversation with Sulaiman trying to calm him down as news broke of renewed US bombings across Iran:

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