The Alleged 28-Point Ukrainian and Russian Peace Plan

A full version of the alleged 28-point US drafted peace plan to bring an end to the war in Ukraine appeared on line courtesy of Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski (you can read the original post on X here). According to my friend, Pepe Escobar, this document was leaked to the Russian press by Kiril Dimitriev. This proposal is worse than I imagined. During an interview with Maria Zakharova that I hosted on Wednesday, along with Alexander Kazakov and Pepe Escobar, she stated that the Russian Foreign Ministry had not yet received an official copy of the proposal.

Once the proposed document is submitted to the Russian Foreign Ministry, I believe that Sergei Lavrov will use careful diplomatic language welcoming it as a starting point for negotiations, but there is no way in hell that Russia will agree to this in its current form.

Russia is winning on the battlefield and is confident that it will prevail, not only over Ukraine, but over NATO. The proposed document assumes that Russia is looking for a way out… It is not. The biggest problem with this document is that it assumes that Russia and Ukraine are negotiating from a position of equal strength. However, given the current collapse of the Ukrainian military, it will be Russia who will dictate the terms.

I have highlighted in BOLD some of the more problematic portions of this document:

1. Ukraine’s sovereignty will be confirmed.

2. A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe. All ambiguities of the past 30 years will be considered resolved.

3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and that NATO will not expand further.

The word, expected, is a major stumbling block… Russia will insist on an iron-clad guarantee that NATO will end expansion and remove weapon systems from Romania and Poland that are capable of launching nuclear missiles.

4. A dialogue will be conducted between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation, thereby ensuring global security and increasing opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.

5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.

6. The size of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 personnel.

In February 2022, at the start of Russia’s special military operation, the total size of the Ukrainian military was about 260,000–280,000 active-duty personnel, including all branches (ground forces, air force, navy, airborne, marines, and special operations). There is no way that Russia will agree to a 600,000 number. During the negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul in March 2022, Russia demanded a peacetime cap of 85,000 active personnel for Ukraine’s armed forces, a figure far below Ukraine’s pre-war standing army of approximately 200,000–250,000 troops. This was part of broader Russian demands for demilitarization, including restrictions on tanks (e.g., fewer than 400), aircraft (e.g., 60–80 combat aircraft), missiles (range limited to 40 km), and artillery systems.

7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that it will not accept Ukraine in the future.

8. NATO agrees not to deploy troops in Ukraine.

9. European fighter aircraft will be stationed in Poland.

I believe that Russia will demand specific limitations on the type of NATO aircraft that will be allowed in Poland.

10. U.S. Guarantees: The United States will receive compensation for the guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of new territories and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine without cause launches a missile at Moscow or Saint Petersburg, the security guarantee will be considered invalid.

As currently presented, this is a problem for Moscow, especially given the history of NATO working with Ukrainian intelligence services to launch false flag attacks.

11. Ukraine retains the right to EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while the issue is under consideration.

12. A powerful global package of measures for the reconstruction of Ukraine, including but not limited to: a. Creation of a Ukraine Development Fund to invest in high-growth sectors, including technology, data-processing centres, and artificial intelligence. b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine on the joint reconstruction, development, modernisation, and operation of Ukraine’s gas infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities. c. Joint efforts to restore war-affected territories, including the reconstruction and modernisation of cities and residential areas. d. Infrastructure development. e. Extraction of minerals and natural resources. f. The World Bank will develop a special financing package to accelerate these efforts.

13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy: a. The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon gradually and on an individual basis. b. The United States will conclude a long-term economic cooperation agreement aimed at mutual development in the fields of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data-processing centres, rare-earth mining projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities. c. Russia will be invited to return to the G8.

14. Frozen assets will be used in the following way: US$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in U.S.-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this undertaking. Europe will add another US$100 billion to increase the total investment available for Ukraine’s reconstruction. Frozen European assets will be unfrozen. The remaining frozen Russian assets will be invested in a separate American-Russian investment vehicle that will implement joint American-Russian projects in areas to be determined. This fund will be aimed at strengthening bilateral relations and increasing shared interests in order to create strong motivation not to return to conflict.

Paragraphs 13 and 14 are delusional proposals. Russia will insist that all sanctions be lifted immediately. Moreover, given the growing importance of BRICS, Russia has little interest in “returning to the G8.”

15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to facilitate and ensure the fulfillment of all provisions of this agreement.

16. Russia will legislatively enshrine a policy of non-aggression toward Europe and Ukraine.

17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and arms control, including START-1.

18. Ukraine agrees to remain a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)will be restarted under IAEA supervision, and the generated electricity will be split equally between Russia and Ukraine (50:50).

Paragraph 19 is a non-starter… ZNPP is officially part of Russia and Russia will not share this with Ukraine.

20. Both countries undertake to introduce educational programmes in schools and society that promote understanding and tolerance of different cultures and the elimination of racism and prejudice: a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and protection of linguistic minorities. b. Both countries agree to lift all discriminatory measures and to guarantee the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education. c. All Nazi ideology and activity must be rejected and prohibited.

21. Territories: a. Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk will be recognised de facto as Russian, including by the United States. b. Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact. c. Russia renounces other annexed territories (probably referring to Russian-occupied parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts – Ed.) that it controls outside the five regions. d. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk oblast they currently control; this withdrawal zone will be regarded as a neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this demilitarised zone.

Russia is not going to agree to freeze anything along the line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia… Those territories are not constitutionally part of the Russia Federal Republic. Russia also will not “renounce” its control over annexed territories… It will insist that the people in those territories have the right to vote whether to remain part of Ukraine or to become part of the Russian Federal Republic.

22. After future territorial arrangements are agreed, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of violation of this commitment.

23. Russia will not obstruct Ukraine’s commercial use of the Dnipro River, and agreements will be reached on the free transportation of grain across the Black Sea.

Russia’s control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia gives it de facto control of the Dnipro River… Russia is not going to surrender control of that to a Ukraine that is aligned with the West.

24. A humanitarian committee will be created to resolve outstanding issues: a. All remaining prisoners and bodies will be exchanged on the “all-for-all” principle. b. All civilian detainees and hostages will be returned, including children. c. A family reunification programme will be implemented. d. Measures will be taken to alleviate the suffering of conflict victims.

25. Ukraine will hold elections 100 days after the agreement is signed.

26. All parties involved in the conflict will receive full amnesty for actions committed during the war and will undertake not to file claims or pursue complaints in the future.

I do not believe that Russia will agree to full amnesty.

27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council headed by President Trump. Predetermined sanctions will apply in the event of violations.

28. Once all parties have agreed to and signed this memorandum, the ceasefire will enter into force immediately after both sides withdraw to the agreed positions so that implementation of the agreement can begin.

There is that word again: ceasefire. Putin’s position on this matter was presented on June 14, 2024. Russia will insist on Ukraine’s demilitarization… Short of that, there is no viable path forward for negotiations. Russia is not going to put its security in the hands of Donald Trump. He is a lame duck leader and there is no guarantee on the table that will satisfy the Russians that this proposed agreement would be enforced by his successor.

Here is the video of the interview with Maria Zakharova and General Apti Aluadinov (Note — The video is huge and it will take some time for it to upload: