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PamelaDrew's avatar

"What are the indicators that the US will strike Iran? The US should have at least one carrier task force in the region, at least a couple of squadrons of fighter/bombers, and the hardening or evacuation of US military bases in the region. So far there is no sign of such activity."

John Kiriakou said the same thing for Venezuela.. lucky us that CIA training holds true!

Nakayama's avatar

I think Donald Trump's general strategy to deal with Israel and Netanyahu is to (1) violently agree with Netanyahu in public, and boast about taking down Iran (or Venezuela) in one strike, in 72 hours, or simply "will smash them". (2) activates US intelligence and special forces to attack a smaller target marginally related to what Israel wants. Sometimes a bit more show of force (like in Venezuela), but rarely with uniformed boots on the ground. (3) a lot of bribes and a small and short air campaign (Venezuela) or slightly longer with a lot of bombing on empty deserts (Syria, and coming to Lebanon soon) (4) when AIPAC really pushes him or when Israel gets into deep trouble (like the end of 12-day war), Trump will consult with his business acquaintance but the real strategist, Linda McMahon, about how to play a fake game. Something like the American bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities will happen next. The attack will go in at the designated time, along pre-agreed flight path, drop agreed-on ammunition with full cooperation from the ground crew to maximize the visual and aural effects. Make sure a good propaganda video clip can be made out of the bombing. (5) The other nation will make a very conservative, well announced counter-strike, usually at a point of no interest, but not always. Just one light touch on the wrist, strictly according to the script. Exactly like how they play in professional wrestling.

Well, all the above are purely my speculations. But think about it this way: if you don't do something along the requested line, your family member could be in danger, you yourself can be assassinated by your own bodyguards. If you cut the budgets of MIC, there are more than enough former military personnel now needing some money to pay off their cars, waiting to be employed. Actually, these people can be even more ruthless and competent than the US special forces. The US special forces, even if they are unquestionably loyal to the POTUS, they are not tasked to protect the president or to execute POTUS orders to take down, say, the top five CEOs in the MIC. POTUS is a great title. But if you cannot even change where your bodyguards stand or do, what power do you have? I am not joking. This was roughly the situation in the second half of the Ming dynasty in Chinese history.

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