The Gulf Separating the US and Iran is Too Wide to Bridge
As I pointed out in my last article, someone in the Trump administration who has been briefed on Trump’s upcoming statements about the war in Iran made a financial killing yesterday. This is part of a continuing pattern of deliberate deception by Trump, i.e., pretending there is great progress with talks with Iran, which in turn produces a boost in the US stock market and a decline in the futures price of oil. Here is the reality: There will be no negotiated end to the war with Iran in the next six months because the US narrative and the Iranian narrative cannot be reconciled.
Let’s start with the US position or narrative… Iran is an irredeemable Islamic terrorist state that is teetering on the edge of collapse. Iran’s political and military leaders are deeply divided. Iran’s economy has no way to recover as long as the war goes on. Iran’s military capabilities have been decimated. Iran must cease enriching uranium and must allow complete, unhindered inspections of its nuclear facilities. This is what the overwhelming majority of Trump advisors and US political pundits believe.
Iranian leaders are equally firm… Iran will only agree to a negotiated settlement to end the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz if Israel agrees to a complete ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza. The Strait of Hormuz will remain under Iran’s control and that they would never relinquish control of the SOH. On May 5, 2026, Iran launched a new body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA), requiring all ships wishing to cross the Strait of Hormuz to register, fill out forms, and pay a toll before receiving a transit permit. Iran will never give up its supply of enriched uranium and, as a sovereign nation and signatory to the NPT, will exercise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. Iran will continue to support the Palestinian people and their quest for freedom and self-rule and will continue to provide assistance to Hezbollah. Finally, Iran will not compromise on its right to build ballistic missiles.
This, boys and girls, is called an impasse. The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran’s economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel.
Donald Trump faces several dilemmas… The US economy is beginning to falter with growing public anger over the surging price of gasoline. There are no viable military options to effect a regime change in Iran or to compel Iran to agree to US demands. The US supplies of critical weapons systems will be further depleted if the US renews its aerial and missile attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation on US and Israeli targets will inflict significant damage. As long as the US continues to attack Iran, its relations with Russia and China will deteriorate.
The real threat to the US is not military, it is economic. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran confronts the world with an unprecedented economic threat. US attempts to block this will only worsen what will become a global economic catastrophe.
Iran is pursuing diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait to restore the export of these commodities to the world under Iran’s PGSA. If Qatar and Saudi Arabia cut a deal with Iran, the US influence in the region will be castrated. If there is a global financial crisis accompanied by a major recession, if not depression, then the US will be under enormous pressure to make a deal with Iran that will restore international trade and shipments from the Persian Gulf. Iran holds the ultimate trump card… Trump holds none.
Brother Garland Nixon and I held our regular Thursday chat (take note of Garland’s spectacular shirt):
Stas Krapivnik and I had an excellent chat — it was recorded Wednesday evening:
Lastly, I spent an hour Thursday night chatting with Ryan Dawson… Show him some love:
Love the graphic and clear summary of our wretched circumstances. I’m going to keep praying.
The U.S. is so desperate for a method of pain compliance that the U.S. complained to the United Nations Security Council about Iran’s enrichment of uranium.
When the U.S. withdrew from JCPOA, the U.S. violated UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
Iran is adhering to JCPOA and Security Council Resolution 2231.
They / us / the U.S. is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. Permanent members made a commitment to the international community to support the nuclear deal and are obligated to implement the deal or facilitate implementation of the deal in good faith in a constructive manner.
The U.S. said that Iran is technically complying with JCPOA, but that Iran is defying the "spirit" of the agreement and wants the UN to punish Iran for non-nuclear activities.
We / the U.S. are the outlaws and pirates of the world. We have a lot of nerve to complain about Iran not being compliant with the “spirit”’of a contract that Iran is adhering to and compliant with.
What an embarrassment.
Luke 12:1-7
Amplified Bible, Classic Edition
12 In the meanwhile, when so many thousands of the people had gathered that they were trampling on one another, Jesus commenced by saying primarily to His disciples, Be on your guard against the leaven (ferment) of the Pharisees, which is hypocrisy [producing unrest and violent agitation].
2 Nothing is [so closely] covered up that it will not be revealed, or hidden that it will not be known.
3 Whatever you have spoken in the darkness shall be heard and listened to in the light, and what you have whispered in [people’s] ears and behind closed doors will be proclaimed upon the housetops.
4 I tell you, My friends, do not dread and be afraid of those who kill the body and after that have nothing more that they can do.
5 But I will warn you whom you should fear: fear Him Who, after killing, has power to hurl into hell (Gehenna); yes, I say to you, fear Him!
6 Are not five sparrows sold for two pennies? And [yet] not one of them is forgotten or uncared for in the presence of God.
7 But [even] the very hairs of your head are all numbered. Do not be struck with fear or seized with alarm; you are of greater worth than many [flocks] of sparrows.