The Trump Administration is Gaslighting Regarding Russia’s Military Capabilities

At the end of this article you will find two videos from my recent visit to Russia that features retired General Andrey Gurulyov and Lt. General Apti Alaudinov.

Today I want to give you some hard data regarding Russia’s decisive advantages over Ukraine and NATO with respect to hypersonic missiles, artillery and drones. The Trump administration, along with its NATO allies, continue to gaslight the public about Russia’s military capabilities. Russia holds a commanding lead in offensive firepower, especially when it comes to hypersonic missiles… The US still does not have an operational hypersonic system, while Russia has five such weapons that are routinely used on the battlefield.

Russia has been a pioneer in hypersonic weapons development, focusing on missiles that travel at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound, or about 6,174 km/h at sea level) while being highly maneuverable. This makes them difficult to intercept with traditional missile defense systems like the US Patriot or Aegis. Hypersonic missiles are categorized into two main types: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), which are launched by a rocket booster and then glide through the atmosphere, and Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs), which use advanced air-breathing engines like scramjets. Russia’s program emphasizes air-launched, sea-launched, and ground-launched variants, often integrated with nuclear or conventional warheads. These systems are touted as “unstoppable” by Russian officials, though experts debate their vulnerability to electronic warfare and detection.

Key drivers include countering NATO defenses and projecting power in regions like the Black Sea and Arctic. Development accelerated post-2014 Crimea annexation, with significant testing under President Vladimir Putin. As of 2025, Russia has operationally deployed several types of hypersonic missiles in the Ukraine conflict.

Russia also employs another hypersonic missile, i.e., the Isakander. The Iskander-M (export: Iskander-E) is Russia’s primary tactical-operational short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) system, replacing the older OTR-21 Tochka (SS-21 Scarab). Deployed since 2006, it is designed for high-precision strikes against high-value, time-sensitive targets in theater conflicts, with significant evasion and penetration capabilities against modern air defenses.

“A poor man’s hypersonic weapon” — Not as fast as Kinzhal or Avangard, but cheaper, more numerous, and highly accurate. It combines ballistic speed, cruise missile precision, and active countermeasures in a mobile, rapid-strike package.

Bottom Line: The Iskander is Russia’s most effective conventional theater strike system, capable of decapitating air defenses, logistics hubs, and command centers within 500 km — often before the enemy can react. Its real-world combat record in Ukraine proves both its lethality and vulnerability to prepared defenses.

Russia maintains a notable advantage in artillery firepower against Ukraine, particularly with 155mm systems, which have become the NATO-standard caliber dominating Ukraine’s arsenal. This edge stems from Russia’s massive pre-war stockpiles, wartime industrial mobilization, and external supplies, allowing it to sustain higher rates of fire despite Ukrainian counterstrikes on depots and production. However, Western aid surges and Ukraine’s domestic production have reduced the disparity from ratios as high as 1:10 (Ukraine:Russia) in early 2024 to around 1:2 by late 2025. The 155mm focus amplifies Russia’s lead because Ukraine’s transition from Soviet-era 152mm guns to Western 155mm howitzers (e.g., M777, CAESAR) has created compatibility challenges and heightened reliance on imported shells.

Sources of Russia’s Advantage

Industrial Mobilization and Scale: Russia’s defense industry, operating under wartime footing, produces shells at a rate 2–3 times that of the US and EU combined (~250,000/month vs. ~100,000/month for NATO). This includes refurbishing millions of Soviet-era shells, enabling sustained barrages. In contrast, Ukraine’s pre-war 155mm production was negligible, forcing a rapid (and incomplete) shift from 152mm systems. By October 2025, Russia’s output remains ~4.5 million annually, bolstered by North Korean and Iranian supplies (~1 million+ shells/year).

Higher Fire Rates and Battlefield Impact: Russia’s ability to fire 20,000+ shells daily allows suppressive fire that overwhelms Ukrainian positions, supporting infantry advances (e.g., in Donetsk). This “artillery dominance” has enabled incremental gains, with ratios like 1:2 forcing Ukraine into rationing—firing only when targets are confirmed via drones. For 155mm specifically, Russia’s adoption of compatible systems (e.g., imported or converted) gives it volume over Ukraine’s precision-focused but ammo-limited Western guns.

Economic and Logistical Resilience: At ~$1,000/shell, Russia sustains output despite sanctions, dedicating ~20% of its defense budget to munitions by 2027. Shorter supply lines and centralized control minimize waste, unlike Ukraine’s dependence on transatlantic convoys.

Russia’s Drone Advantage Over Ukraine (as of October 2025)

Russia holds a significant quantitative and operational edge in drone warfare against Ukraine, particularly in long-range strike drones and mass production, which enables sustained attrition and overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses. This advantage has intensified since mid-2024, driven by scaled manufacturing, foreign partnerships (notably with Iran and China), and tactical adaptations like fiber-optic and mothership drones. While Ukraine excels in innovative FPV (first-person view) and interceptor drones—often outpacing Russia in quality and adaptability—Russia’s volume allows it to saturate defenses, strike deep infrastructure, and support ground advances. Zelenskyy noted on October 28 that Russian Shahed-type drones are now “more dangerous than ballistic missiles” in some scenarios, requiring multi-system intercepts. Overall, Russia’s drone superiority contributes to a 10:1 frontline ratio in some sectors, per Ukrainian reports, though Ukraine’s countermeasures (e.g., 500–800 daily interceptor drones by November) are narrowing the gap.

The statistics regarding Ukraine are suspect, especially the claim that Ukraine downs 80-90% of Russian Shaheds. Ukraine also is exaggerating the number of Russian vehicles destroyed because the Zelensky government is desperately trying to convince the West that it still has a chance of stopping the Russian advance… But the facts on the ground tell a different story. Russia continues to methodically destroy Ukrainian forces, infrastructure and industrial plants.

Andrey Gurulyov

Lt. General Apti Alaudinov