Trump Remains Schizophrenic on Peace with Iran

Donald-Trump-asleep-in-Oval-Office

I am going to start wearing a neck brace… Trump’s conflicting comments about the peace negotiations with Iran have given me whiplash. Today at a Cabinet meeting, President Trump asserted that Iran is “negotiating on fumes” and insisted that November’s midterm elections won’t make him rush into a deal to end the nearly three-month-old conflict.

He said that after opening the Cabinet meeting with the claim that a deal is near. Over the weekend, he had declared that his administration and Tehran had “largely negotiated” a settlement, but the negotiations remain in flux. Which is it? Flux, fumes or largely negotiated?

Trump expressed confidence that the US would soon reach an agreement to end the conflict, though he cautioned that his administration is not yet satisfied with the terms — and is willing to resume fighting if it can’t secure its demands.

The key area emanating fumes is the Strait of Hormuz… Trump said: “We’re going to watch over it. We’ll watch over it, but nobody’s going to control it. That’s part of the negotiation that we have.” Iran disagrees, with Iranian officials continuing to insist that management of the strait has nothing to do with the US and would be coordinated with Oman. Oh yeah, almost forgot, Trump also threatened to bomb Oman if it goes along with Iran in controlling traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

As for the broader deal taking shape, under the potential agreement, Trump insisted that Tehran would agree to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — a key Trump demand — in return for sanctions relief, according to two regional officials and one senior Trump administration official. That completely contradicts Iran’s firm position that the enrichment of uranium will not be discussed until the issues of sanction relief, unfreezing Iranian assets and an end to the war against the Palestinians are settled.

Meanwhile, back in the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Iran exchanged fire for the second consecutive day. The latest incident threatens to scuttle the ceasefire. Here is the latest statement from the IRGC Public Relations Office:

Urgent / The IRGC targeted a US airbase

Following the aggression carried out at dawn today by the invading US military against a location on the outskirts of Bandar Abbas Airport using aerial projectiles, the American airbase that served as the origin of the aggression was targeted at 4:50.

Statement by the IRGC Public Relations Office:

In the name of God, the subduer of tyrants.

“So whoever has assaulted you, then assault him in the same way that he has assaulted you.”

Following the aggression carried out at dawn today by the invading US military against a location on the outskirts of Bandar Abbas Airport using aerial projectiles, the American airbase that was the source of the aggression was targeted at 4:50.

This response is a serious warning so that the enemy knows aggression will not go unanswered, and if repeated, our response will be more decisive.

Responsibility for its consequences lies with the aggressor.

“And victory is only from Allah, the Almighty, the Wise.”

Iran’s single missile retaliation today was a warning shot across the bow of the US (the target was Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait). If the US persists in attacking Iranian targets around Bandar Abbas in the coming days then I believe the next launch by Iran will be intended to do serious damage to US air assets. At that point, kiss the ceasefire good-bye.

Today was a busy podcast session. I started the afternoon off with Danny Davis:

I also did a session with Chri Helali and Sarah at DDGeopolitics:

I chatted with Pyotr Kurzin who is on safari in Africa:

Mario is getting dizzy from trying to keep track of Trump’s ever shifting positions on talks with Iran:

I closed out the evening with Sulaiman Ahmed, who is celebrating EID: