Trump Still Fails to Understand Russia’s Fundamental Reason for the Special Military Operation, But He is Trying

SOCAR Oil Terminal Destroyed in Odessa

Despite claims from the Trump administration about the success of Monday’s meeting with Zelensky and the European pimp delegation, the prospect for a successful negotiation to end the war in Ukraine is zero. Trump continues to mistakenly believe that he simply needs to get Putin and Zelensky together, who will hammer out a deal. Trump labors under the false assumption that the war in Ukraine was caused in part by a personal tiff between Putin and Zelensky. Putin has been very clear that he will only meet with Zelensky once the details of a Ukrainian surrender have been agreed on. Trump also thinks that is nothing more than a dispute over land, and that land swaps is a key to achieving a peace agreement. Here again Trump displays profound ignorance about the legal status of Zaporhyzhia and Kherson republics under the Russian Constitution. Putin cannot concede any of that territory to Ukraine anymore than Trump could give Alaska back to Russia.

But there is some good news: Notwithstanding Trump’s ignorance of Russia’s reasons for starting the Special Military Operation (SMO) in February 2022, he is sincere about reestablishing dialogue and normal diplomatic relations with Russia… at least that is what the Russians believe. During the Biden term in office, communication with Russia ended in January 2022. Now they have someone to talk to… actually several someones, which includes Trump, Rubio, Ratcliffe and Witkoff.

Russia is not going to back away from increasing military pressure on Ukraine. In the last 24-hours, Russia hit two key oil refineries –i.e., the Kremenchug oil refinery in the Poltava oblast and the SOCAR oil terminal/depot in Odessa. The Kremenchug Oil Refinery is owned by PJSC Ukrtatnafta. The ownership structure of Ukrtatnafta includes:

• The Ukrainian state, through Naftogaz of Ukraine NJSC, holding about 43% of shares.
• The Privat Group, controlled by Ukrainian businessman Ihor Kolomoyskyi and Oleksandr Yaroslavsky, holding about 56% via offshore entities.

In case you forgot, Ihor Kolomoyskyi is a prominent Ukrainian oligarch who played a significant role in Volodymyr Zelensky’s rise to power during the 2019 presidential election. This support included:

• Media Support: Kolomoyskyi owned the 1+1 Media Group, whose main TV channel (1+1) broadcast “Servant of the People,” the hit political satire starring Zelensky. This show helped propel Zelensky’s national profile and popularity. Kolomoyskyi’s media outlets gave extensive, supportive coverage to Zelensky throughout his campaign.
• Business and Personal Connections: Zelensky’s production company, Kvartal 95, had business ties with Kolomoyskyi’s media group. During the campaign, Zelensky appointed Kolomoyskyi’s personal lawyer as a key adviser, and he travelled to meet Kolomoyskyi abroad on multiple occasions while Kolomoyskyi was in exile.
• Perceptions of Influence: These connections fueled perceptions, especially among critics and political opponents, that Zelensky was “Kolomoyskyi’s candidate” or a potential puppet of the oligarch. His campaign benefited from Kolomoyskyi’s resources and media influence, leading to skepticism about the independence of his anti-oligarch platform

While Kolomoyskyi and Zelensky have since parted ways, Ihor is still a major economic force in Ukraine and this hit him where it counts. It also damages Ukraine’s lines of communication with respect to getting fuel to Ukrainian military vehicles.

The bombing of SOCAR in Odessa is even bigger news. SOCAR is the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic. It’s Azerbaijan’s national oil and gas corporation and operates fuel stations, terminals, and logistics facilities in several countries, including Ukraine. The Odessa depot serves as a gateway for fuel products destined for European markets and for Israel. The destruction of SOCAR’s Odessa oil depot is a significant financial blow for Azerbaijan, leading to reduced market access, increased cost burdens, and forcing a reassessment of both commercial and diplomatic strategies for Azerbaijan in Ukraine, in Israel and in Europe. Consider this: SOCAR operates around 60 fuel stations across Ukraine and has invested in oil storage and network infrastructure in the Kiev, Odessa, and Nikolayev regions. This is not just an attack against the leader of Azerbaijan, it also is a severe blow to Ukraine’s ability to supply oil and fuel to its military forces. Putin sent a clear message to the Azeri leader, Aliyev, who has been way too chummy with Zelensky, Israel and the United States… FAFO.

If you want to know what Putin’s government is thinking in the wake of Monday’s meeting in Washington between Trump and Zelensky, set aside 20 minutes to listen to Sergei Lavrov:

I had my usual Tuesday chat with Marcello: