Trump’s Bogus Claims About Progress in Talks with Iran Just Made Some Insider a Lot of Money
President Donald Trump abruptly paused “Project Freedom” — a US military operation to escort ships through the Iranian-blockaded Strait of Hormuz — roughly 36 hours after it began. According to NBC News, the reversal came after significant backlash from key Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia. Trump announced the operation via social media on Sunday, surprising Gulf partners. In response, Saudi Arabia suspended US access to Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace, which are critical for providing air cover (fighters, tankers, and defensive umbrella) to ships transiting the strait. A phone call between Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to resolve the dispute. Other allies (e.g., Qatar, Oman) were also caught off guard, with coordination occurring only after the public announcement.
Now here is the kicker:
In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort, the officials said.
A call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not resolve the issue, the two U.S. officials said, forcing the president to pause Project Freedom in order to restore U.S. military access to the critical airspace.
This means that previous plans for a renewed attack on Iran will not happen this week. However, the disinformation put out by the White House made someone a lot of money. The Kobeissi Letter on X has the story:
According to our analysis, ~$920 million worth of crude oil shorts were taken 70 minutes before an Axios report claimed the US and Iran were near a “14-point” deal to end the war.
At 3:40 AM ET today, nearly 10,000 contracts worth of crude oil shorts were taken without any major news. This is equivalent to ~$920 million in notional value, an unusually large trade for 3:40 AM ET.
At 4:50 AM ET, just 70 minutes later, Axios reported that the US is “close” to a “memorandum of understanding” to end the Iran War.
By 7:00 AM ET, oil prices had fallen over -12% with these crude oil shorts gaining approximately +$125 million. Minutes later, Iran launched the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” and oil prices surged +8%.
Iran’s leader of Iran’s legislative body, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, reacted to the Axios story that claimed a deal was at hand:
The operation “Trust me, guys” has failed; now they have returned to their usual practice of spreading fake news via Axios.
Hopes that Donald Trump was serious about finding a negotiated end to the war with Iran have been obliterated. The Trump team, speaking to the Wall Street Journal, are busy erecting a new meme to justify renewing the attack on Iran. Senior US officials told the WSJ Editorial Board the US demands for an Iran deal:
• 20-year enrichment ban
• Hand over all enriched material
• Attestation it doesn’t seek nuclear weapon
• Dismantle Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan
• Ban on underground nuclear work
• On-demand inspections/penalties for violations
Iran will not, under any circumstances, accept these demands. Trump will likely proclaim that he made Iran a generous offer but they refused it because they are intent on building a nuclear weapon. Sources in the Persian Gulf have been told that the attack originally planned for 7 May is pushed back until the week of 10 May.
I spoke with Mario today about the mixed signals coming from the Trump White House:
I also spoke Wednesday evening to Pascal Lottaz who hosts Neutrality Studies:
I would bet $1-billion dollars and all the oil refineries in Saudi Arabia that the reason they are disallowing DJT to use land and airspace is because of Resolution 3314 of the Geneva Convention.
➡️ If Saudi Arabia enables the U.S. to attack Iran, this “enabling” activity allows Iran to legally and justifiably strike Saudi Arabia.
Iran can legally drop bombs on Saudi Arabia and its justifiable under UN Resolution 3314 if Saudi Arabia provides access to land and airspace to attack Iran.
✅ Any nation partnered with Israel and the U.S. are justifiable and legal targets under Resolution 3314.
✅ UN Resolution 3314 says:
A country (Saudi Arabia) that allows another country (U.S. / Israel) to use their land or airspace (Saudi Arabia) becomes a legal an justifiable target of the victim country (Iran).
✅ The enabling country (Saudi Arabia) becomes a party to the conflict / war when Saudi Arabia allows the U.S. / Israel to use land or airspace.
✅ Saudi Arabia was a legal and justifiable target before they put down the hammer. 🎯⚖️
✅ Enabling another country (U.S. / Israel) to attack another country (Iran) makes the enabling country (Saudi Arabia) a legal and justifiable target under UN Resolution 3314.
✅ It is 100% legal and justifiable for a victim country (Iran) to bomb a country (Saudi Arabia) that helped the enemy country (U.S. / Israel) to carry out strikes against the victim country (Iran).
✅ Iran said that Iran would strike U.S., Israel or enablers 4x every time the U.S. strikes Iran.
A country should stay IMPARTIAL and stay OUT of hostilities if they don’t want to be bombed by the victim nation (Iran).
Saudi Arabia has intelligently declined to allow the U.S. to use Saudi Arabia’s land or airspace to facilitate attacks on Iran to protect infrastructure and lives. Good job Saudi Arabia.
Who will step up next and take a stand to protect their country and people from justifiable and legal retaliation?
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s tweet is hilarious! Operation “Trust me, guys” has failed; now they have returned to their usual practice of spreading fake news via Axios. 🤭🤭😆😆😂🤣🤣
💰💰💰 Iran’s uranium is worth $20-billion. There is no way on earth they are giving away their uranium. They are a sovereign nation. We / the U.S. need to mind our own disastrous business and square away our own country. We have zero business sticking our nose in Iran’s business.
If I’m Iran, I’m going to manufacture 300 intercontinental nuclear ballistic missiles to keep the U.S. from breathing down my neck. Iran is absolutely justified. If any other nation can have nuclear, so can Iran. They need it based upon our never ending terrorism on earth for the last 240-years.
I trust Iran more with nuclear than I trust Israel or my crazy murderous country.
😀 😃 Big Thanks! 😃 😀