Trump’s Schizophrenia Cannot Hide the US Lack of Strategic Depth

Patriot Missile Launcher

Sometime in the next decade, I think the publishers of Roget’s Thesaurus will include, “Trump” as a new synonym for erratic. Trump executed another of his signature volte face during a meeting with his cabinet. According to the Economist:

AMERICA ALARMED Ukraine, and European allies, when it abruptly halted weapons shipments to Ukraine earlier this month (July 3rd). Just as suddenly, President Donald Trump countermanded the order on July 7th. “We are going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now.” Within hours, the Pentagon confirmed it would send “additional defensive weapons”.

Former Russian President Medvedev, wasted no time skewering Trump with this post:

Looks like the Russians are not impressed with Trump’s fickle behavior and will continue to pulverize the Ukrainians. Although Trump’s decision to send Ukraine some more weapons for defense was interpreted as something that will happen quickly, Sean Parnell, the spokesman for DOD Secretary Hegseth:

insists that the process to “evaluate military shipments across the globe remains in effect and is integral to our America First defence priorities”. This implies that some weapons could still be held back from Ukraine.

What Trump does not understand is that the ability of the US to supply a variety of weapon systems — both offensive and defensive — is constrained by a lack of supplies and a weak industrial capability to ramp up production. Let’s take a look at some of the systems:

PATRIOT MISSILES:

Start with the understanding that at least two Patriot missiles are fired at an inbound missile. During the last three days, Russia has launched more than 1300 missiles and drones at Ukraine. The annual U.S. production of Patriot missiles—specifically the PAC-3 MSE variant—is currently about 500 missiles per year. Production is contractually obligated to increase to 550 per year by mid-2025 and is expected to reach 650 per year by mid-2027.

When including both PAC-2 and PAC-3 variants (produced by Lockheed Martin and Raytheon), the total U.S. production is projected at around 740 Patriot missiles per year in 2025, with plans to ramp up to approximately 1,100 per year by 2027. In other words, if Ukraine tried to shoot down each of the 1300 missiles and drones launched this week by Russia, that volley would have consumed more than three-years of current Patriot production.

At what cost? The cost of a Patriot missile depends on the variant:
• PAC-2 GEM-T missile: Approximately $4 million per missile.
• PAC-3 MSE (Missile Segment Enhancement) missile: Approximately $7 million per missile.

M1 ABRAMS TANK:

In 2024, the United States produced approximately 30 M1 Abrams tanks. This figure reflects a reduction from previous years and aligns with the U.S. Army’s FY2024 budget plans, which projected the production of 30 tanks for that year.

Most of these are not brand-new builds from scratch but rather upgraded or rebuilt tanks—primarily conversions of older M1 variants to the latest configurations (such as the M1A2 SEPv3). The production is handled by General Dynamics Land Systems at the Joint Systems Manufacturing Center in Lima, Ohio.

Russia, by contrast, is producing ten-times the number. In 2024, Russia produced an estimated 280 to 300 T-90M tanks. This figure is supported by multiple defense analysis sources, including the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), Army Recognition, and Military Watch Magazine, all of which report a significant surge in production compared to pre-war levels. The increase is attributed to expanded operations at the Uralvagonzavod plant, which shifted to a 24-hour, three-shift schedule to meet wartime demand.

TERMINAL HIGH ALTITUDE AREA DEFENSE MISSILES (THAAD):

Industry analysis and government reporting suggest the U.S. produces approximately 60–80 THAAD interceptors per year. This estimate is based on historical production rates and recent increases in demand due to deployments in the Middle East and new orders from allies. Israel reportedly launched over 90 THAADs against Iranian ballistic missiles during the 12 day war. Each missile costs $13 million, which means $1.2 billion worth of THAADs were expended in a fruitless effort to thwart the Iranian attacks.

HIMARS MISSILES:

In 2024, the United States produced approximately 14,000 HIMARS missiles—specifically, Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets, which are the primary munitions used by the M142 HIMARS launcher.
• Monthly production: As of September 2024, the U.S. was producing about 1,167 GMLRS rockets per month, a 40% increase from 2022 levels.
• Annual production: At this rate, annual output is approximately 14,000 GMLRS rockets (1,167 × 12).

The cost of an exported HIMARS missile is approximately $220,000.

BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES:

In 2024, the United States contracted BAE Systems to produce more than 200 new modernized Bradley Fighting Vehicles, specifically the A4 variants (M2A4 and M7A4). This production surge is in response to the need to replenish vehicles sent to Ukraine and to modernize the Army’s fleet. These vehicles are primarily modernized/upgraded from older variants rather than entirely new-builds, reflecting current US Army procurement and modernization strategies. The modernized M2A4 Bradley currently costs about $4.35 million per vehicle as of recent US Army procurement in the mid-2020s. As of early July 2025, Russia has destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured at least 140 Bradley Fighting Vehicles (BFVs) supplied to Ukraine since February 2022, according to the open-source intelligence group Oryx and multiple defense analysis reports. This figure includes vehicles that are visually confirmed as destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured in combat. That is $609 million dollars lost in Ukraine.

STINGER MISSILES:

The United States currently produces about 40 Stinger missiles per month, with plans to increase production to 60 per month by 2025—a 50% increase from the current rate. This means the annual production rate in 2024 is approximately 480 Stinger missiles, with a target of 720 missiles per year once the ramp-up is complete.

155 MM ARTILLERY SHELLS:

In 2024, the United States produced approximately 400,000 to 480,000 155 mm artillery shells.

The cost of a 155 mm artillery shell depends on the type:
• Standard (unguided) 155 mm shell:
• Current market price is approximately €3,300–€4,000 per shell (about $3,600–$4,400 USD as of 2024).
• US Army procurement data for the XM1113 round lists a unit cost of about $13,656 per shell, and the XM1113 Extended Range round at $14,484. These figures may include additional costs related to U.S. military procurement.
• Precision-guided 155 mm shell (e.g., M982 Excalibur):
• Costs over $110,000 per shell.

155 MM HOWITZERS:

In 2024, the United States produced approximately 200–250 new 155 mm howitzers. The US Army’s primary 155 mm howitzers are the M777 (towed) and the M109A7 Paladin (self-propelled). Russian drone manufacturer ZALA claims that nearly 200 American-made M777 howitzers supplied to Ukraine have been destroyed by Russian Lancet drones since February 2022. In 2024, the United States produced less than 30 replacement barrels per month for the M777 howitzer, totaling fewer than 360 barrels for the year. The sole US production facility, Watervliet Arsenal, was unable to meet the “unprecedented demand” created by Ukraine’s high rate of artillery fire, which led to rapid barrel wear and an urgent need for replacements. The cost of a replacement barrel (M776 cannon tube) for the M777 howitzer is approximately $690,000 USD per barrel. This figure is based on Canada’s June 2022 contract to provide 10 replacement barrels to Ukraine for a total of $6.9 million.

As you can see, the US production of these weapons systems is anemic and expensive. Moreover, the demand for these systems is not confined to Ukraine… Israel, Taiwan and other US allies also need these weapons, as well as the US providing supplies for its own forces. Uncle Sam has become Old Mother Hubbard… The cupboard is bare.

Danny Davis and I had an interesting chat today about Trump’s erratic behavior: