Ukraine Launches Terrorist Offensive with Western Assistance on Eve of Negotiations in Istanbul

Downed Bridge in Bryansk

The Ukrainians, along with many of their Western backers, are giddy with joy over a terrorist attack on a Russian civilian passenger train and a drone attack on Russian strategic bombers. Ukrainian sources insist that they destroyed one-third of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. That is utter nonsense. Here is a more measured assessment of what was achieved:

In general, it may be too early to talk about this, but we think some things need to be clarified, since the enemy IPSO is trying to use the information space and present its idle wishes as reality.

First of all, let’s see the number of hits. The enemy cites a figure of about 40 units, which allegedly makes up 34% of the Russian strategic aviation aircraft. All Ukrainian information bases are now trumpeting this.

Having analyzed all the videos published by the Ukrainian Armed Forces (and there are, of course, all of them, so we have no reason to hide the scale of Russian losses, because they are obvious), so far we have counted the hit, at most, 5 strategic bombers Tu-95.

Of these 5, two are definitely beyond repair.

Here we must add another Il-20, which will probably also be written off. On three Tu-95 aircraft, the fires seem to be localized and there is a chance that (if the fires are extinguished in time) they may be able to be put into service.

As of this morning, the Russian armed forces had 58 Tu-95 aircraft in service. Even if we assume that all five aircraft burned down, this would be less than 10% of the Tu-95 fleet (not counting the 19 Tu-160 units and 55 Tu-22M3M units, the video of which the enemy did not post).

It is known that, of the planned strikes on five airfields, only two were successful. Three strategic aviation aircraft were not damaged. Thus, according to confirmed data, less than 4% of our strategic fleet was disabled. And if we count heavy bombers (only Tu-95 and Tu-160), then it is 6.5%.

Now let’s consider the question of how much this will affect the strikes that the Russian Aerospace Forces will be able to carry out on the territory of Ukraine.

Ukrainian sources, do not use their reason, but a calculator and “ceiling” figures for losses that they simply invented (say, by a third). In fact, these current losses will not affect Russian strike power in Ukraine at all. Here’s why:

The number of cruise missiles – Kh-101 (the standard weapon of the Tu-95, used against targets in Ukraine), which this aircraft can simultaneously carry is 8 units. In the last attacks, no more than 40 of these missiles were launched simultaneously. That’s a full SIX aircraft. In other words, Russia needs only SIX combat-ready Tu-95 aircraft to carry out strikes with the same intensity as before. And there are many times more of them left. The Tu-160s should not be neglected either. They are not currently participating in strikes. The reason is quite justified. These are newer aircraft, the service life of which is being preserved, and the Tu-95MSM should still be used and gradually written off due to the age of the structure. Perhaps, even, the current war will be one of the last in which this type of aircraft will be used.

In my opinion, none of these attacks could have been planned and executed without assistance, if not the direct involvement, of Western intelligence and NATO officers. The drones likely were activated by a remote signal made possible by Western satellites and/or systems like Starlink. Those systems also played a critical role in enabling the drones to navigate to the targeted airfields.

While this is clearly a PR victory for Ukraine, it is a classic example of a Pyrrhic victory–i.e., a tactical win, leading to a strategic defeat. The Trump administration is denying any knowledge of the attack. I take that disavowal with a big grain of salt. People within the CIA and USEUCOM offices, who are providing assistance to Ukraine, likely knew about the plan, and may even have provided intelligence support to get the drones to their targets. Like any covert operation, they may have tried to give Trump plausible deniability, but the Russians know how this game is played.

I expect Russia will launch a massive retaliatory strike after the talks in Istanbul on Monday conclude. The Ukrainian attacks on the bridges, the train and the airfields have done nothing to alter the situation all along the line of contact in Ukraine. News continues to pour in from the front, from both Ukrainian and Russian news outlets, painting a picture of growing desperation, even panic, among Ukrainian forces, as Russians capture more territory and kill more Ukrainian troops.

The thing to keep in mind is that the Russian leadership, not just Putin, are not going to react emotionally. I am not suggesting that they are not enraged — they are — but the Russians value brains and strategy over passion. They are calmly assessing these latest developments and will prepare and deliver some new blows on Ukraine that will signal a significant escalation in the weapons Russia will use on Ukrainian targets. I think that by the end of the week, Zelensky and his cronies will be singing a different tune.

One final point: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held a phone conversation with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. So far, the Russians have not provided a readout of this chat. Rubio reportedly expressed condolences to Lavrov over the recent attacks on trains in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions. I am pretty sure that Minister Lavrov delivered a stern and forceful message to Rubio, which included a warning that Russia is prepared to use all necessary means to defend its people from terrorist attacks. I wonder if Rubio had to change his underwear after that conversation?