US Inching Towards a Deal With Iran
Donald Trump’s envoy leading the negotiations with Iran, Mr. Steve Witkoff, is behaving like a Olympic gymnastics gold medalist, performing an amazing series of verbal backflips. A week ago, he appeared prepared to accept a cap on Iranian uranium enrichment. Then, by mid-week, he put out a message on social media insisting that Iran had to give up all uranium enrichment. And today? Based on comments from the Iranian negotiators, Witkoff apparently did another volte face… the two sides agreed to appoint experts who could hammer out the details of an agreement that would allow Iran to continue with the peaceful use of nuclear energy while providing for inspections that would guarantee Iran is not building a nuclear weapon.
I don’t know about you, but I breathed a sigh of relief upon hearing that news. We may get out of this alive if the announced plans for future meetings stay on track. Iran’s Foreign Minister delivered an upbeat report on today’s meeting in Rome. According to Araqchi:
The second round of talks was once again constructive, and if the Americans continue to present realistic demands and good faith, an agreement is within reach.
Talks between nuclear experts of our countries [US & Iran] will begin on Wednesday in Oman, and on Saturday we will have the third round of talks, also in Oman, which will discuss the findings of the experts.
In case of any nuclear deal, it will be monitored by the IAEA, and no external party, including the United States, will be involved in monitoring our nuclear program’
Netanyahu and the Zionist lobby in the United States will be furious about this news. I don’t doubt they will pull every lever possible to try to derail these negotiations. But Trump is desperate for a foreign policy victory. He’s failed to deliver on his promise to end the war in Ukraine and he is facing growing pressure from angry farmers who are outraged over the tariff war on China. So, if he can bring home a win by declaring that Iran is ending its program to build a nuke, even if it means accepting an updated version of the JCPOA deal he abandoned seven years ago, I think he will stick with the deal Witkoff appears to have concluded with Foreign Minister Araqchi.
There are other factors that may be giving Trump second thoughts about starting a war with Iran. The Middle East Spectator is reporting that:
Iran’s 2,000 kilometer range ‘Sepehr’ OTH Radar has finally become operational, satellite imagery seems to confirm
The radar array is one of Iran’s most advanced over-the-horizon radars, more than 1,5 kilometers in length. It can detect takeoffs of individual aircraft or ballistic missile launches at a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, including inside the entirety of Israel.
Only a handful of countries have mastered such advanced OTH radar technology, and the radar provides Iran with valuable early warning of an imminent attack.
If the US intelligence community is confirming this report, then I believe that Tulsi Gabbard and Pete Hegseth are telling Trump that the Iranian’s have the capability to detect and thwart a military attack by either the US or Israel. At least I hope that is what is happening behind closed doors.
We also cannot ignore what Vladimir Putin is doing behind the scenes, most likely in concert with Xi Jinping, to help shape the deal between the US and Iran by assuring Donald Trump that Russia is fully committed to preventing Iran from building and using a nuclear weapon.
The odd man out is Bibi Netanyahu. If you have not subscribed to Alastair Crooke’s terrific Substack, Conflicts Forum, I encourage you to do so. At least once a week, Alastair’s incredible wife peruses the Hebrew-language press in Israel and provides a summary of what the Israelis are saying in their own tongue. Much of this is never reported in the Western press. The most recent post on this subject paints a pretty bleak picture of the internal politics of Israel. Based on what is being written and said in Hebrew, Bibi has some big problems:
Battle for control of Israel’s Security Agencies escalates, approaching breaking point /
Protest Movement surges; spreads to Israel’s Military and Intelligence Services /
60% of Israelis see a real danger of civil war /
“Bibi’s panic level is rising” — ‘He fears mass protests and demonstrations more than anything’ /
Senior Defence Establishment figures: ‘We have no idea where the War is going’
Speaking of Alastair, I snagged him for another stellar interview this week. It was posted today on Counter Currents. Enjoy:
Looks like Netanyahu may finally get his comeuppance for his evil deeds.
His buddy USA is pushing him aside, and his country is rebelling against him.
Dare we hope that the Trump Administration will stop sending money and weaponry to Net. and his gang of orcs--i.e. IDF, in the near future?
Pray for a cascade of power loss and thwarted ideas to happen to Netanyahu~the sooner the better to save lives.
All we are sayin' is give peace a chance...
Another possible contributing factor to Witkoff's gymnastic technique is the realisation inside the Trump administration that going with Bibi may no longer be operationally feasible, never mind the excellent ethical and political reasons for casting him aside. If Alastair Crooke is to be believed, Israel is ready to implode, making any strategy dependent on Netanyahu's continuing relevance somewhat vulnerable, to say the least.
Could it be that Witkoff's Olga Korbut impersonation is a deliberate delaying tactic designed to hasten the toppling of Netanyahu by Israeli forces, thereby letting the USA off the hook with respect to AIPAC and the donor class, which would have to go with whatever viable alternative would succeed Netanyahu?
Sad that the USA would even need to be let off any hook, but this is where we are. Much worse that hundreds of Palestinians are being slaughtered and tortured because of this lack of US integrity, and extremely difficult to see how any administration is going to recover the US's moral and political standing after all this. But with respect to ending the slaughter, we might at least be able to reasonably hope that the Trump administration is skilfully navigating the forces arrayed against it. I stress "might".
But 10 out of 10 to Mr Witkoff for bringing skill and professionalism to US diplomacy not seen for too many years. And shame on Europe for finding common cause with the likes of Pompeo and Bolton.