US Officials, Including Witkoff and Kushner, Are Getting Russia Wrong

My old friend, Sy Hersh, is out with a new piece on Substack that reveals a staggering ignorance and delusional thinking on the part of Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner and other advisors in the Trump administration. Sy is a reporter… He records what his sources tell him; he does not opine. Here is what his well-placed sources in the Trump administration told him about Russia:

In the view of US officials involved in the negotiations, Putin is facing increasing political, economic, and military opposition in Moscow—mortgage rates are soaring and the Russian military is in serious disarray—has realized that he must end the war. One US official involved in the talks told me that since the end of the summer Putin has been aware that he can “no longer act alone. . . . He needs money and has got to consolidate what he’s already achieved” in Ukraine. “He is not a superman.”. . .

The US official told me that Putin is aware that there is little to be gained by continuing his offensive in Ukraine, where territory has been gained at the cost of heavy losses of men and materiel. Ongoing warfare is not going to change the balance of forces. Putin is under pressure to end the war from his military and from a public staggered by its continuing cost, and inflation is at 8.4 percent. Some of the most senior Russian generals, while still loyal to Putin, urgently want the depleted Russian Army to get out.

I have been told that there are six essential elements of the tentative settlement to which “Russia has essentially agreed” and they are “not likely to be significantly modified.” According to a draft agreement that has yet to be signed, they include:

1. Ukraine will be allowed to build and maintain a standing army of 800,000, which is much greater than Russia initially proposed. The previous proposal called for a standing Ukrainian army of 600,000.

2. Russian compliance with the agreement will be monitored by Europeans on the ground, buttressed by American satellite intelligence.

3. Russia will not deploy its troops within 150 miles of the border with Ukraine.

4. Russia agreed that by 2027, if Zelensky has an opponent, Ukraine could have an election for the presidency.

5. Russia is also insisting that the entire territory of Donbas, the easternmost region of Ukraine, most of which is under Russian control, will be in effect ceded to Russia. One solution now on the table would involve the notion of suzerainty: a relationship where a powerful state has dominance over a weaker state and steers its foreign policy and defense, while allowing it internal self-governance.

6. The agreement allows Ukraine to join the European Union as soon as January 2027, a long sought economic goal of Zelensky’s. Russia still publicly objects to it, but a commitment by Washington and the European Union not to admit Ukraine into NATO will make EU membership for Ukraine acceptable to Putin.

I have no doubt that Sy is accurately reporting what he was told by his sources. It is alarming that the US officials involved in the negotiations with Russia — and this directly implicates Witkoff and Kushner — are so out of touch with reality. The “official” or “officials” that spoke to Sy are clearly regurgitating Ukrainian propaganda about the supposedly dire state of the Russian military and the allegedly weak economy.

I excuse Sy’s sloppy reporting because of his age… He’s pushing towards 90 years of age. He failed to push back on the claim that Russia’s 8.4% inflation is a problem. Wages in Russia during the past year grew by 20%… So yes, prices have gone up but wages have exceeded the rise in prices. Just one example of misinformation or ignorance on the part of the US official who fed this line of crap to Sy.

Let’s take a close look at each of the six points. First up:

Ukraine will be allowed to build and maintain a standing army of 800,000, which is much greater than Russia initially proposed. The previous proposal called for a standing Ukrainian army of 600,000.

As I have discussed in a previous post, Russia and Ukraine reached a tentative agreement in March 2022 to limit Ukraine’s army to 85,000. Russia’s stated goal is the demilitarization of Ukraine. There is absolutely no way that Russia will agree to let Ukraine have a larger army today than it had in February 2022.

Next up, point two:

Russian compliance with the agreement will be monitored by Europeans on the ground, buttressed by American satellite intelligence.

I defer to Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, who addressed this very point in a recent interview with ABC News:

Ryabkov ruled out any NATO troop presence in Ukraine “under any circumstances,” extending this to non-NATO European forces as well. He welcomed U.S. efforts under Trump but emphasized Russia is guided solely by national interests.

Point three also is complete nonsense:

Russia will not deploy its troops within 150 miles of the border with Ukraine.

If Russia accepted this point, it would have to withdraw its troops from Pokrovsk and Myrnograd… That ain’t happening.

Point four also is non-starter:

Russia agreed that by 2027, if Zelensky has an opponent, Ukraine could have an election for the presidency.

Putin and his national security team have been emphatic that new elections in Ukraine are a pro-condition for negotiations to begin. This is simply more delusional thinking on the part of the West.

Then there is point five… The US negotiators continue to ignore what Putin and his team have been saying, repeatedly, since June 14, 2024. Sergei Ryabkov made this quite clear in his interview with ABC:

Russia will not compromise on control of Donbas, Novorossiya (parts of southern Ukraine), and especially Crimea, which he called “integral parts of Russia” enshrined in the constitution. He described these as five “subjects” (likely referring to the annexed regions: Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) where concessions would revise “a very fundamental element of our statehood.”

Point number six is the only one that Russia will likely accept:

The agreement allows Ukraine to join the European Union as soon as January 2027, a long sought economic goal of Zelensky’s. Russia still publicly objects to it, but a commitment by Washington and the European Union not to admit Ukraine into NATO will make EU membership for Ukraine acceptable to Putin.

Ukraine’s economy is a complete basket case. I think this is a form of macabre Russian humor… Put the economically and demographically crippled in the EU and let them carry the cost of a deadbeat country.

As Ray McGovern says, if you want to know what the Russians are thinking then just listen to what they say. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a major address at the expanded meeting of the Defense Ministry Board in Moscow today (i.e., December 17, 2025) . The speech focused on military achievements, Russia’s strategic position, and the ongoing “special military operation” in Ukraine, with direct comments on negotiations.

On the topic of negotiations, Putin stated that Russia would prefer to achieve its goals in Ukraine through diplomatic means and eliminate the “root causes of the conflict.” However, if Ukraine and its “foreign patrons” (implying the West) refuse substantive talks, Russia will achieve the liberation of its “historical lands” by military means. He emphasized that the operation’s objectives will be met “unconditionally.”

He accused European leaders of “war hysteria” and called them “little pigs” (or “shoats”) for exaggerating a Russian threat to Europe, labeling it “pure nonsense.” Putin dismissed Western claims of preparing for war with Russia as lies, while noting Europe’s military buildup.

With respect to the Ukrainian territories that Russia annexed in 2014 (i.e., Crimea) and 2022 (i.e., Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia), Putin reiterated the point made by Mr. Ryabkov…No compromise on annexed regions (Crimea, Donbas, and other “Novorossiya” areas), which Putin described as integral to Russia. He tied progress to international recognition of Russia’s gains.

While welcoming U.S. efforts under Trump, Putin framed Russia’s position as strengthened by battlefield successes (e.g., liberating over 300 settlements in 2025). He implied ongoing proposals (referencing Berlin talks) must align with Russia’s demands, or military advancement will continue.

I wonder if Sy’s source was General Frosted Flakes, errr, I mean General Kellogg? If Sy’s reporting reflects what Wittkoff and Kushner have told President Trump, and Trump is expecting a peace agreement by Christmas, then Donald is going to get a big lump of black coal in his stocking. Not a happy Christmas.

Here are my recent podcasts… The first is with Dmitry Zolotarev, the second with Michael Farris and the last with Danny Davis: