The chess pieces are moving and the US appears to be making final preparations to attack Iran. But there are reports that Trump wants a guaranteed victory before he gives the order to launch. When I woke up this morning I was greeted with the news that the US is evacuating some personnel from Al Udeid Air Force Base in Qatar. In addition, the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt has arrived in the Red Sea, along with three missile destroyers and one missile-carrying submarine of the US Navy that are currently in the region. But wait, there is more.
The American Embassy in Kuwait has temporarily suspended the movement of staff at some military bases.
Then we have a number of Western countries Urging Citizens to Leave Iran (or Strongly Advising Immediate Departure)
United States — The U.S. State Department (via its Virtual Embassy in Tehran) maintains a Level 4: Do Not Travel advisory and explicitly urges U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately if present. It advises planning departures by land (e.g., to Turkey or Armenia) without relying on U.S. government help, citing risks of detention, violence, and limited assistance.
Poland — The Polish Foreign Ministry urges the immediate departure from Iran and advises against all travel there.
Italy — Italy’s Foreign Ministry has issued statements urging citizens to leave Iran due to the deteriorating security situation.
Spain — Spain’s Foreign Ministry has similarly urged citizens to leave Iran. Germany — Germany urges residents to leave Iran, warning of risks like arbitrary arrests and noting limited embassy assistance.
Australia — Australia advises citizens to leave Iran immediately, stating that those who remain do so at their own risk.
However, despite Trump’s heated public rhetoric, he may be having second thoughts. NBC news reports:
President Trump has privately told his top advisors that he would want any action against Iran to deliver a ‘swift and decisive blow’ to the regime
However, a U.S. official confirmed that Trump’s advisors have been unable to guarantee to him that the regime would quickly collapse after an American military strike.
There is concern that the U.S. may not have enough assets currenrly present in the region to defend against what administration officials expect would be an ‘aggressive’ Iranian response.
Tehran, meanwhile, set social media ablaze late on Wednesday (early Thursday morning in Iran) when it issued a NOTAM (i.e. Notice to Airmen) closing Iranian airspace to all commercial aircraft for a few hours. I do not know if this was because they expected an imminent attack or if Iranian authorities were conducting a military operation to test their alert and air defense systems.
I agree with John Mearsheimer that Iran’s best course of action right now is to warn the US and all Gulf nations that any attack on Iran will lead to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz… Such a blockade would prevent 45% of the oil produced each day by both OPEC and non-OPEC nations from reaching consumers. Shuttering the Strait would cause a dramatic spike in the price of oil, which would be a windfall for all non-OPEC countries… Especially Russia, who is the largest producer of oil next to Saudi Arabia.
I spoke late last week with Danny of CapitalCosm and with Andrey Klintsevich of Moscow Calling:
The signs are there that a US attack on Iran is imminent. We have seen the eastward flight paths of US cargo planes across the Atlantic, the movement of US refueling air tankers in the Mideast, and now Larry's report that a US aircraft carrier group is in the Red Sea.
But Trump may be hesitating. The violent rioters have fizzled, and he cannot be assured of a successful attack. There may be seeds of doubt in his mind. Recall what he said when asked if there are any limits to his power:
“Yeah. There is one thing. My own morality. My own mind. It’s the only thing that can stop me." Let us hope and pray that seeds of doubt will grow in the (rarely seen) moral part of his mind, and so will stop him from issuing the order to attack Iran.
Hey Larry, please comment. The Deep Intelligence system burned their puppet, Trump, who witnessed the ritual sacrifice of a baby at Epstein's Island with (redacted) others. Please verify first I guess, because this is wild and shows what a horror show modern politics is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPy8sysZ5Aw