Wednesday, A Watershed Moment for Peace in Ukraine and Making a No-Nuke Deal with Iran

Wednesday will be a very active day on the diplomatic front with respect to Ukraine and Iran. Let’s start with Ukraine. The New York Times reports:

Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided on Tuesday to skip the next stage of the Ukrainian cease-fire talks, while Ukraine rebuffed one of President Trump’s key proposals for a deal that would halt the fighting with Russia.

Negotiators from the United States, Europe and Ukraine will still meet in London on Wednesday to continue hammering out a cease-fire proposal. But the back-to-back developments are a double blow, raising fresh questions about how much progress is being made toward winding down the three-year war.

Short answer… no progress. Rubio’s statement last week, following a meeting on Ukraine in Paris, that unless there is movement towards a peace agreement this week, the United States is going to exit the process and leave it to the Europeans and Ukraine to decide how to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The meeting in London will reportedly focus on the Kellogg Plan, which was actually written by former CIA officer, Fred Fleitz, in April 2024, but carries the name of Kellogg. Here are the key elements of this plan:

In their April 2023 Foreign Affairs article, Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan proposed that in exchange for abiding by a cease-fire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. We also call for placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction.

By enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength while also communicating to Russia the consequences if it fails to abide by future peace talk conditions, the United States could implement a negotiated end-state with terms aligned with U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Part of this negotiated end-state should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defense that focuses on bilateral security defense. Including this in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal offers a path toward long-term peace in the region and a means of preventing future hostilities between the two nations.

According to several press reports, the key points of the plan include a ceasefire in place, recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and a solemn promise not to ever invite Ukraine to be a member of NATO. Although Zelensky reportedly has rejected the Crimea provision, I don’t rule out the possibility that his objections will be ignored and that the London meeting will produce an agreement to move forward with the Kellogg Plan, not because the Ukrainian delegation and the Europeans believe it is viable, but because they assume that Russia will reject it and take the blame for scuttling the peace deal.

Steve Witkoff reportedly will accompany Mr. Kellogg to the meeting, and it will be his duty to carry the proposal to Moscow and present it to President Putin. Southern Americans have a saying… “that dog won’t hunt.” The Kellogg Plan is dead-on-arrival once it arrives in Moscow. The entire Russian government’s diplomatic and military leaders, not just Putin, are on the record that republics of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporhyzhia are now and will remain republics of Russia. That is not negotiable.

Russia also will not enter into negotiations with Ukraine until Zelensky is gone, his September 2022 edict prohibiting negotiations with Russia is lifted and Ukrainian forces withdraw from Russian territory and cease all military operations. This will not be the first time that Witkoff has heard this list of demands from President Putin. He is merely an actor in a bit of political theater. After the Russians reject the plan as a non-starter, Witkoff will inform President Trump: there is no deal.

However, I think Witkoff also intends to use the meeting with Putin to discuss ways Russia can help secure a deal with Iran that will guarantee Iran will not build a nuclear weapon. Which brings me to the Wednesday meeting that is supposed to take place in Oman:

Delegations from Iran and the US have agreed on a new round of technical negotiations at the level of experts, due to be held in Oman on Wednesday, April 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted by the local media in Tehran….

Delegations from Iran and the US have agreed on a new round of technical negotiations at the level of experts, due to be held in Oman on Wednesday, April 23, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was quoted by the local media in Tehran…. Read more on: https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1169312/world/asia/us-iran-technical-talks-in-muscat-on-april-23

This is a critically important meeting. This means that experts on nuclear enrichment will discuss what the West wants and what Iran is prepared to give up. The potential stumbling block is High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU):

HALEU is defined as uranium enriched to greater than 5% and less than 20% of the U-235 isotope.

Uranium found in nature consists largely of two isotopes, U-235 and U-238. The production of energy in nuclear reactors is from the ‘fission’ or splitting of U-235 atoms, a process which releases energy in the form of heat. U-235 is the main fissile isotope of uranium.

Natural uranium contains 0.7% of the U-235 isotope. The remaining 99.3% is mostly the U-238 isotope which does not contribute directly to the fission process. Most reactors in operation today are light water reactors (of two types – PWR and BWR) and require uranium to be enriched from 0.7% to 3-5% U-235 in their fuel. HALEU is needed for many advanced power reactor fuels, and about three-quarters of the SMR designs in development.

Here is the key issue: the Iranians use HALEU to help produce medical isotopes. These radioactive isotopes are manufactured by irradiating targets via a uranium-235-produced neutron field. What are medical isotopes?

Medical isotopes, or radionuclides, are radioactive materials used in nuclear medicine. Nuclear medicine specialists use them to diagnose and treat various diseases, including cancer.

Medical isotopes form the basis – the active substance – for nuclear medicines. The medical isotope is linked to a molecular tracer. This means that the radioactive substance can be taken to the right place in the body. There, the radioactive substance emits what we call ionising ‘radioactive’ radiation.

That is likely to be one of the key topics the experts will discuss and debate during the Wednesday meeting in Oman. They will prepare a report, hopefully a joint-draft, that will be presented to the lead negotiators on Saturday. The outcome of these talks will determine whether or not the US decides to go to war with Iran.

I recorded a monologue on the upcoming negotiations. It is only nine minutes in length.