What Did Medinsky Tell Ukraine’s Umerov?

Umerov and Medinsky

On June 2, 2025, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Russian envoy Vladimir Medinsky held a private meeting in Istanbul that lasted approximately 2.5 hours, preceding the formal peace negotiations between their respective delegations. This bilateral discussion delayed by an hour the start of the official meeting, which lasted just over an hour. Almost all of the media have ignored the Umerov/Medinsky meeting. What is particularly noteworthy is that Umerov did not attend the one-hour session with the full delegations, but Medinsky did.

So, what did the two men discuss? For starters, Mr. Medinsky delivered Russia’s memorandum presenting the options for ending the war and explained the meaning of each section in detail to Umerov. If Umerov was surprised, he’s an idiot, because the document reflected exactly what Vladimir Putin had said to the Russian Foreign Ministry in June 2024. But I don’t think he was surprised. I also believe that Medinsky drove home the point that this is the last chance for Ukraine to survive as a country with access to the Black Sea. I am sure Medinsky delivered this message in a calm, professional voice, but made it clear that Russia would make no concessions if Ukraine did not take the deal on the table.

Let us review the main points from the Russian memorandum, which the Russian delegation handed over to the Ukrainian delegation at the talks in Istanbul:

The Russian memorandum on the settlement in Ukraine includes three sections with two options for the conditions of the ceasefire and 31 points;

🔻The first option for the ceasefire for Kiev is the complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhyea regions;

🔻The complete withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the territory of the Russian Federation, including Donbass and Novorossiya, must be carried out within 30 days of the ceasefire;

🔻International recognition of Crimea, Donbass and Novorossiya as part of Russia;

The neutrality of Ukraine;

The Russian proposals for the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis involve holding elections in Ukraine, and then signing a peace treaty. Kiev must announce the date of the presidential and Rada elections, which must take place no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law;

🔻The ceasefire implies a ban on the redeployment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the exception of movements to withdraw troops to an agreed distance;

🔻A ban on the acceptance and deployment of nuclear weapons in Ukraine;

🔻To cease fire, the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine is excluded, this also applies to the provision of intelligence;

🔻A peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine must be approved by a legally binding resolution of the UN Security Council;

🔻To cease fire, Ukraine must amnesty “political prisoners” and release detained military and civilians;

🔻For a final settlement in Ukraine, it is necessary to ensure the full rights, freedoms and interests of Russian speakers;

🔻Renouncing mutual claims with Ukraine in connection with damage from military actions.

PART II

Complete withdrawal

Beginning of the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other paramilitary formations of Ukraine from the territory of the Russian Federation, including the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, and the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, as well as their withdrawal from the borders of the Russian Federation to a distance agreed by the parties, in accordance with the approved regulations.

“Comprehensive Agreement”

The “comprehensive agreement” provides for a ban on the redeployment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other paramilitary formations, except for actions aimed at withdrawing from the borders of the Russian Federation to a distance agreed upon by the parties. Similarly, the following points are listed for the second option:

• Cessation of mobilization and the beginning of demobilization.

• Cessation of foreign deliveries of military products and foreign military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of satellite communications and intelligence services.

• Exclusion of the military presence of third countries on the territory of Ukraine, cessation of the participation of foreign specialists in military actions on the side of Ukraine.

• Guarantees of Ukraine’s refusal to engage in subversive and sabotage activities against the Russian Federation and its citizens.

• Creation of a bilateral center for monitoring and controlling the ceasefire.

• Mutual amnesty for “political prisoners” and the release of detained civilians.

• Abolition of martial law in Ukraine.

• Announcement of the date for the elections of the President of Ukraine and the Verkhovna Rada, which must be held no later than 100 days after the lifting of martial law.

• Signing of the agreement on the implementation of the provisions contained in the first section.

• Steps and deadlines to be followed.

The final section contains the sequence of steps to be taken by each party to the conflict before the document enters into force:

• Beginning of the drafting of the treaty text.

• Declaration of a 2- to 3-day truce for the collection of bodies in the “gray zone.”

• Unilateral delivery to the Ukrainian side of 6,000 bodies of service members of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

• Signing of the ceasefire memorandum with specific dates for the implementation of all its provisions and determination of the date for the signing of the future Final Settlement Treaty (hereinafter, the Treaty).

• A 30-day ceasefire regime is established from the moment the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine begins. At the same time, the complete withdrawal of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the Russian Federation and the full implementation of the “comprehensive agreement” must be carried out within these 30 days.

• Elections are held and governing bodies are formed on the territory of Ukraine.

• Signing of the Treaty.

• Approval of the signed Treaty by a legally binding UN Security Council resolution.

• Ratification, entry into force, and implementation of the Treaty.

Note what is missing in the list of Russian demands… denazification. Although not explicitly stated, the practical effect of Ukraine accepting the Russian proposal would, in fact, preclude the extreme rightwing elements, aka the neo-Nazis, from being part of the succeeding government.

I do not believe that the Russians anticipate that Zelensky and his neo-Nazi crew will accept the Russian proposal. However, the memorandum is likely to sharpen differences withing the Ukrainian government and create more chaos, not less. Could that be part of Russia’s plan for bringing this war to a military conclusion? If Ukraine rejects the offer, President Putin and his team will be able to persuade their allies in the Global South that they made a good faith effort to end the war, but that the extremists who control Ukraine are not willing to negotiate. Accordingly, Russia will press home the attack and finish off the Ukrainian army and its NATO backers.

I encourage you to watch Nima’s interview today with Pepe Escobar. Pepe illuminates the feeling running rampant in Moscow about the need to finish off Ukraine and send NATO an unmistakable message that the recent attack on Russia’s strategic bombers has crossed a line and they, NATO, will pay a price.