Why is US Intelligence Providing Bogus Numbers of Dead Russian Soldiers?

I am sort of surprised no one has done what I am going to do… Provide a realistic calculation of the actual number of Russian casualties since the start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022. This includes Killed in Action (KIA) and Wounded in Action (WIA). Sy Hersh, in one of his recent posts, was fed a line of bullshit by a US military or US intelligence source. I don’t blame Sy… He simply reported what he was told. He wrote the following about the current Russian offensive, citing an official:

I was told: “all farmland, no fortified towns or critical communication sites. The monthly casualties have been 380 a month through May. The total now is two million. Most importantly,” the official stressed, “was how this number was described. All the best trained regular Army troops, to be replaced by ignorant peasants. All the best mid-grade officers and NCOs dead. All modern armor and fighting vehicles. Junk. This is unsustainable.”

Really? 2 million since February 2022? The numbers don’t add up. If that was true, Russia has lost an average of 48,780 soldiers KIA or WIA per month. Let me show you why that is a garbage number.

2022

The Russian Armed Forces, encompassing all branches (Ground Forces, Navy, Aerospace Forces, Strategic Rocket Forces, Airborne Forces, and Special Operations Forces), had the following estimated personnel:

Active-Duty Personnel: Approximately 900,000 to 1,013,628 active servicemen, with the higher figure cited from a 2017 Kremlin decree that was still in effect. This included:

• Contract Soldiers: Around 400,000–405,000, with 147,000 in the Ground Forces.

• Conscripts: Approximately 270,000, serving mandatory one-year terms, with limited combat deployment outside Russia.

• Officers and NCOs: The remainder, roughly 225,000–338,628, based on the total active figure.

The Russian Ground Forces, a subset of the Armed Forces and the primary component for land operations in Ukraine, were estimated as follows:

• Active Personnel: Approximately 300,000 active-duty personnel, including 147,000 contract soldiers, with the remainder being conscripts and officers.

• Structure: Organized into around 170 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs), each with 600–800 soldiers, designed for rapid deployment. This suggests a combat-ready force of ~102,000–136,000 for ground operations. By February 2022, 10 Combined Arms Armies were committed to the Ukraine invasion, supported by elements like the 29th, 35th, and 36th Armies in Belarus.

• Deployment to Ukraine: Approximately 200,000 troops were deployed for the invasion, drawn primarily from the Ground Forces but supported by other branches (e.g., Airborne Forces), indicating a significant portion of the active force was mobilized.

In September 2022, between September 21 and the end of October to be precise, Russia’s Defense Ministry mobilized 300,000 reservists for the war in Ukraine. Starting in November 2022, Russia conscripted 120,000 new recruits (men aged 18–27). By the end of December 2022, Russia’s Ground Forces totaled 720,000 maximum.

Still with me? Okay. Let’s look at 2023.

2023

The most credible midpoint estimate, balancing official and independent data, is ~700,000 total new soldiers (contracts + conscripts) in 2023, though exact numbers remain opaque due to Russian secrecy. For comparison, 2024 recruitment was estimated at 374,200–407,200 contracts plus ~310,000 conscripts. [NOTE: Official data pegs the number at 817,000 (540,000 contracts + 277,000 conscripts), while independent sources estimate around 631,400 (354,400 contracts + 277,000 conscripts).]

So, let’s use the 700,000 figure. That makes Russia’s total estimated ground forces — without taking into account casualties and those who left the service at the end of their contract or conscription — 1,420,000.

2024

Official Estimate: Approximately 713,000 (430,000 contracts + 283,000 conscripts).

Independent Estimate: Around 583,000–643,000 (300,000–360,000 contracts + 283,000 conscripts), accounting for potential inflation in official contract numbers.

I will split the difference and use the figure of 648,000 soldiers. That brings the total size of the Russian army to 2,068,000… Again, with the assumption that no one left the service and there were no casualties.

2025 (January thru June)

Official Estimate: Approximately 370,000 (210,000 contracts + 160,000 conscripts).

Independent Estimate: Around 315,000–335,000 (175,000 contracts + 140,000–160,000 conscripts), accounting for the partial spring draft and potential over reporting.

I will use 192,500 (i.e., splitting the difference between the Official claim and the Independent Estimates) for Contract soldiers. Adding that to the conscripts gives us the total for the first half of 2025 of 352,500.

Total number of Ground Forces since the start of the Special Military Operation in February 2022 is 2,420,500. This is the total number based on the assumption that no one left the army at the end of their tour and that there were no casualties. Stick with me.

As of mid-2025, the Russian Armed Forces comprise about 1.13 million to 1.32 million active personnel. This represents a substantial increase from pre-2022 levels, reflecting ongoing expansion due to the war in Ukraine.
• According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ The Military Balance 2025, Russia’s armed forces have about 1,134,000 active troops.
• Some other sources, such as Statista, estimate the number as 1.32 million.

I subtracted the 1,320,000 — i.e., current force level — from the 2,420,500 who were conscripted or signed a contract since February 2024. That leaves us with 1,100,520 soldiers unaccounted for. Were all of them killed? No. The traditional ratio of KIA to WIA is 1:4, i.e., for every dead soldier there are four wounded.

Let’s apply that ratio to the Mediazona data. According to Mediazona, as of late July 2025, over 120,000 Russian soldiers have been confirmed killed in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Based on that number, I estimate there are 480,000 WIA. Total casualties according to these figures is 600,000. That leaves us with 500,520 unaccounted four. How many deserted? How many simply ended their tour of duty and went home?

If the number cited by Sy Hersh’s source was valid, then Russia would have had to conscript or recruit an additional 899,500 new soldiers. Neither Western sources or Russian sources confirm that happened. I can’t say I am shocked by this because we saw the US military fudge the casualties of the Vietnamese during that war and the CIA inflated the number of Soviet deaths in Afghanistan.

This kind of dishonesty is one reason why the US has not won a war since the end of World War II… Lies are used to sustain a failed policy. Instead of accurately counting Ukrainian casualties, DOD and the CIA are content to delude themselves about actual Russian losses.

I had a brief chat with Marcello today, covering a variety of topics: