Will Russia Help Defend Iran Against a US/Israel Attack?
This is one of the issues that Scott Ritter and I discussed yesterday with Nima (the video has more than 163,000 views as of now). Based on public comments, US and Israeli authorities are assuming that Russia will do nothing, other than issue a strongly worded protest. That is a view shared by most analysts, including Scott. I have a different opinion and decided to elaborate on my thinking.
Prior to January 17, there was no formal agreement on security cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. That is no longer the case. So let’s examine the particulars of that agreement. I am not a lawyer (and no, I did not stay at a Holiday Inn) and will rely on the commentariat, Judge Napolitano and Alexander Mercouris to correct any errors in my analysis.
The Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty between the Russian Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran contains 47 articles. Six of these are relevant in the event that Trump follows through on his public threats to attack Iran.
The key paragraph in the agreement is Article 3, paragraph 3:
In the event that one of the Contracting Parties is subjected to aggression, the other Contracting Party shall not provide any military or other assistance to the aggressor Continuation of aggression, and will help to ensure that the differences that have arisen were settled on the basis of the Charter of the Organization United Nations and other applicable rules of international law.
The last clause of this paragraph is referring to Article 51 of the UN Charter. Article 51 of the United Nations Charter recognizes the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a UN member state. Here’s what it stipulates:
“Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defense shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.”
This is not just boilerplate for the agreement. The Russians have an earned reputation for being sticklers about law, both domestic and international, and I believe they included this language as an explicit promise to help Iran defend itself against an unprovoked attack by the United States or Israel. Note, if Iran launched a preemptive strike on US planes based in Diego Garcia, that would exclude Russia responding. I discount the reports that Iran is planning to launch a missile strike on Diego Garcia because it would leave them without the guarantee of Russian support if the US carried out a retaliatory strike.
Article 4, paragraph 1, provides further insight into the nature of the support that Russia is prepared. to provide Iran based on the security agreement:
In order to strengthen national security and counteraction common threats to the intelligence service and the security of the Contracting Parties exchange information and experience and improve the level of cooperation.
“Exchange information” is a diplomatic euphemism for providing intelligence information. I believe this means that Russia is now supplying Iran with regular updates, based on Russian Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance capabilities, as well as human intelligence, to keep abreast of US plans and operations in the region. It also is likely that senior Russian military and intelligence officials are in Iran briefing them on the latest intelligence developments.
Article 5, paragraph 4, buttresses the cooperation outlined in Article 4, but goes beyond intelligence sharing. If Iran is going to “counter” a US or Israeli military strike, this portion of the security agreement implies the provision of capabilities such as, electronic warfare and air defense. That could mean the deployment of Russian military personnel with expertise in operating those systems:
The Contracting Parties shall be consulted and cooperate in the field of countering general military threats and threats security of a bilateral and regional nature.
Apart from providing military assistance to Iran, Russia also made a point of emphasizing diplomatic measures to prevent an attack. Article 9, paragraph 1, stipulates the following:
Guided by the objectives of the maintenance of international peace and security, the Contracting Parties shall consult and cooperate each other within the framework of international organizations, including the United Nations and its specialized agencies, on global and regional issues that may, directly or indirectly, to challenge the common interests and security of the Contracting Parties.
The security agreement also addresses, albeit indirectly, the US claim that Iran is building a nuclear weapon. According to Article 10:
The Contracting Parties shall closely cooperate on arms control, disarmament, non-proliferation and international security within the framework of relevant international Treaties and international organizations to which they are parties, and regularly consult on these issues.
The key phrase is “non-proliferation.” If Iran proceeds to develop an operational nuclear device, this would invalidate this agreement. The Iranians are not crazed lunatics. They understand that they will have more security with Russia on their side as long as they do not proliferate, than they would if the decided to build a nuclear warhead.
Finally, there is Article 23, where Russia and Iran commit to work together on projects devoted to the peaceful use of nuclear energy:
The Contracting Parties promote development long-term and mutually beneficial relations in order to implement joint projects in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy, including the construction of facilities nuclear power.
What was one of the motivating factors underlying this agreement? I believe the answer lies in Article 21, paragraph 4:
The Contracting Parties shall actively cooperate in the development of International Transport Corridors Passing through the Territory of the Russian Federation the Federation and the Islamic Republic of Iran, in particular the international transport Corridor “North – South”. This interaction includes the promotion of goods, originating from the Contracting Parties to the markets of third countries, and the establishment of conditions for the development of seamless transportation through transport corridors both in bilateral traffic and in transit through its territory.
This is Russia putting the BRICS strategy into action. Russia does not trust the West and, in the aftermath of Western economic sanctions and military attacks on Russian territory, Russia is serious about developing a transportation route that will relieve them of depending on the Suez Canal and the Dardanelles — i.e., the narrow strait in northwestern Turkey, historically and geographically significant as a waterway connecting the Aegean Sea to the Sea of Marmara and forming part of the boundary between Europe and Asia. Russia is thinking about the future. It no longer wants to be at risk of going to war with Turkey or with NATO in order to ship grain and fertilizer from the Black Sea. Instead, it is building a transportation corridor that starts on Iran’s ports on the Arabian Sea, passes through Azerbaijan and terminates in Russia.
I am not sure that Donald Trump and his national security team understand this. If they are assuming that they can attack Iran and that Russia will sit by and do nothing, I think they are making a grave error.
I discussed some of this today with my good friend, Rasheed Mohammad: