Will Trump’s Political/Military Theater Widen the War? -- UPDATE

Bushehr Nuclear Powerplant

Trump is Charlie Brown and he just got played by the pro-Zionist crowd, who are Lucy. I don’t excuse his criminal act of war, but the latest attack on Iran is just one more example of what a weak, pathetic man Donald Trump is. He really thinks he pulled off something grand and important, yet does not have a clue about the consequences of his order.

To understand what happened today in Iran, you need to recall the last two times Trump claimed to have carried out massive strikes to derail alleged weapons of mass destruction. I am talking about Syria:

1. April 6–7, 2017 – Shayrat Airbase Tomahawk Strike

• Date & Time: April 6, 2017 (evening ET); missile impact around April 7, 4:40 a.m. Syria time

• What happened:

  • Trump directed the launch of 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles from U.S. destroyers targeting the Shayrat airbase—the launch site for the April 4 sarin attack on civilians in Khan Shaykhun.

  • This was Trump’s first military action directly against Assad’s forces, intended to punish chemical weapons use.

2. April 13–14, 2018 – Coalition Precision Strikes

• Date: April 13, 2018 (U.S. time); strikes executed early April 14 Syria time

• Details:

  • In collaboration with the U.K. and France, Trump ordered precision strikes—chiefly missiles—against three Syrian chemical weapons facilities, responding to the Douma chemical attack on April 7.

  • Strike reached sites near Damascus and Homs, with approximately 105 missiles used.

Now, here is what actually took place behind the scenes. How do I know? Can’t tell you that. The US alerted the Russians in advance to our intentions and plans. The warning was given with enough advance notice that Russian and Syrian assets were able to vacate those locations. All Trump did was launch an expensive fireworks show that cost millions of dollars and blew up some sand dunes.

Given that history, I suggest everyone pour themselves a big scotch or vodka and relax. Initial reports almost always are grossly exaggerated. Here is one possibility: Trump may be doing another Houthi spin… you know, declare that Iran has capitulated and then pull US forces out of harms way. Iran has been extremely patient to a lengthy list of US provocations. I believe they were counseled by Russia and China to let the US strike the first blow, then Iran could retaliate and would have the full backing of both countries. It is highly unlikely that the US has delivered a crippling blow to Iran. If anything, the US has now provided the hardliners more ammunition for Iran to do the very thing that Trump claims he is trying to prevent… build a nuke.

There is a lot of political theater going on in Washington. Have you heard any word of the Bushehr nuclear reactor? Notice that not one word is being said about the Bushehr nuclear powerplant. Not one. Why? Because the Russians are there and that is the only place in Iran that is protected by a Russian-supplied S-400. Russia explicitly warned Washington and Jerusalem that any attack on that facility would be considered an attack on Russia. Oh, by the way, Russia also is building two additional nuclear powerplants in Iran and neither of them has been touched either.

Maybe Iran’s next step is to contract with Russia and China to rebuild and restore the nuclear facilities that have been attacked. With Russia and China on the ground at those sites, the West, including the Zionist crazies, would face serious risk of igniting a global conflagration if the West attacked them. The critical point is that Russia and China are going to have Iran’s back on this. To do otherwise would simply embolden Trump and NATO to pursue similar measures against Russia and China. I think Putin and Xi grasp that strategic reality.

I expect Iran will hit US bases — airfields, naval facilities and ground installations in Iraq and Syria — within the next 24 hours; perhaps sooner. In the event that the US suffers casualties, then Trump will be under greater pressure to escalate. At that point, Trump will have lost control of his agenda and will be a hostage to a new war that he started. He didn’t learn a damn thing from his failed venture with the Houthis and now, by fighting Iran, is going to become more ensnared in the West Asian quicksand.

UPDATE--Upon further reflection, and given initial reports from the sites attacked by the US, I think Iran will not attack US bases in the region because the damage is minimal and they would prefer to keep the focus on Israel. If they don't attack US bases -- and I suspect that is the counsel Russia and China are providing -- Iran can continue to decimate Israel and not provide the US with a pretext to expand the war.

This is off-topic, but here is my speech before the Lakewood Ranch Republican Club this week. Start at the 10 minute mark: