I will try to make this simple. It is a complex question, but it is something we should be contemplating if the world is going to avoid a nuclear holocaust. It boils down to three possibilities:Son of the New American Revolution is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Unconditional surrender following fall of Odessa and movement to Dnipro River, and isolation of Kiev. EU (Germany & France) will head for the hills, leaving Poland and Biden to carry the load. Finally enough Republicans will emerge to stop funding and Dems will be desperate to have Biden not deliver another Afgan reboot (too late). Sullivan, Nuland & Austin will be cast overboard.
An interesting point for me is - “a major rift between Zelensky and his military commanders” - but....this seemed to be there right from the beginning. Let’s hope some miracle happens and the war ends....and I do not believe in miracles. Thank you, Larry.
A negotiated settlement is only possible if there is an exit ramp that is satisfactory to the key players, with concessions on both sides. In this case the key players are clearly Russia and the US. Whether other parties are happy with the outcome is a secondary concern. Unfortunately, neither Russia nor the US have much incentive to seek a deal, and the level of mistrust between them is at a high point.
Public sentiment is a key determinant in both key countries, and I think this will be a deciding factor. An upcoming (already turbulent) election year in the US will probably lead to distraction and/or swings in public sentiment...however, Ukraine may collapse sooner than that.
Not sure if one of the mentioned alternatives distinguishes between reality and media propaganda, as there may be in fact 2 different outcomes. It's 2023. I see indications that the west declares a victory (in fact Biden already did) in the media, while no longer substantially supporting Ukraine and letting them lose the fight with Russia. NATO cannot admit in public that their weapons and strategies are not working against Russia. So Ukraine will be blamed for not using them correctly. While the magician draws the attention to a different conflict (Africa, China, ...) nobody will notice that Russia takes over Ukraine, e.g. by a puppet president. That would be a media victory for the West in western media, while Russia would celebrate the factual victory. Win-win for US and Russia (and lose for Ukrainians as expected and planned, but nobody cares unfortunately).
Unconditional surrender following fall of Odessa and movement to Dnipro River, and isolation of Kiev. EU (Germany & France) will head for the hills, leaving Poland and Biden to carry the load. Finally enough Republicans will emerge to stop funding and Dems will be desperate to have Biden not deliver another Afgan reboot (too late). Sullivan, Nuland & Austin will be cast overboard.
-NATO 1990 deployment lines
-Ukraine neutrality
An interesting point for me is - “a major rift between Zelensky and his military commanders” - but....this seemed to be there right from the beginning. Let’s hope some miracle happens and the war ends....and I do not believe in miracles. Thank you, Larry.
A negotiated settlement is only possible if there is an exit ramp that is satisfactory to the key players, with concessions on both sides. In this case the key players are clearly Russia and the US. Whether other parties are happy with the outcome is a secondary concern. Unfortunately, neither Russia nor the US have much incentive to seek a deal, and the level of mistrust between them is at a high point.
Public sentiment is a key determinant in both key countries, and I think this will be a deciding factor. An upcoming (already turbulent) election year in the US will probably lead to distraction and/or swings in public sentiment...however, Ukraine may collapse sooner than that.
Not sure if one of the mentioned alternatives distinguishes between reality and media propaganda, as there may be in fact 2 different outcomes. It's 2023. I see indications that the west declares a victory (in fact Biden already did) in the media, while no longer substantially supporting Ukraine and letting them lose the fight with Russia. NATO cannot admit in public that their weapons and strategies are not working against Russia. So Ukraine will be blamed for not using them correctly. While the magician draws the attention to a different conflict (Africa, China, ...) nobody will notice that Russia takes over Ukraine, e.g. by a puppet president. That would be a media victory for the West in western media, while Russia would celebrate the factual victory. Win-win for US and Russia (and lose for Ukrainians as expected and planned, but nobody cares unfortunately).
Where is Surovokin?