Tensions Between Russia and NATO are Boiling in the Baltic Sea

While the West is fixated on Monday’s talks between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Baltic Sea is heating up and presents a risk of naval warfare between Russia and NATO. During May 2025, there have been a series of confrontations and escalating tensions between Russia and NATO member states in the Baltic Sea, characterized by naval incidents, airspace violations, and concerns over undersea infrastructure security.

Estonian Interception of Russian Tanker: On May 13, the Estonian Navy attempted to intercept the Gabonese-flagged oil tanker Jaguar, suspected of being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” circumventing Western sanctions. The tanker ignored orders to stop, prompting Estonia to deploy patrol vessels and helicopters. In response, Russia scrambled a Su-35S fighter jet, which allegedly violated Estonian airspace. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission responded with Portuguese F-16s conducting a reconnaissance flight. The Estonia’s and the F-16s retreated. Good decision.

Russian Seizure of a Greek Tanker (May 2025): Incident: Following the Jaguar incident, Russia reportedly seized a Greek-flagged tanker that had departed from the Port of Sillamäe in Estonia, but was in Russian territorial waters. Details are sparse, but this action was a retaliatory move on the part of Russia to the Jaguar incident and should be seen as part of broader strategy to assert control over maritime activities in the Baltic Sea.

Russian Naval Maneuvers Near German Frigate: On May 29, a Russian anti-submarine warship executed maneuvers near the German frigate Bavaria, which was shadowing the Russian ship in the Baltic Sea. This incident occurred amid simultaneous naval exercises by Russia and NATO, raising concerns about potential escalation. (See video below).

NATO states increased patrols near the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania that borders Kaliningrad. Russia responded by deploying additional Iskander missile systems to Kaliningrad, raising fears of potential escalation.

Russian fighter jets intercepted or flew dangerously close to NATO surveillance aircraft over the Baltic. Notably, a Russian Su-27 reportedly came within 5 meters of a German P-3 Orion maritime patrol plane, triggering a diplomatic protest from Germany.

🛡️ Military Exercises and Strategic Posturing

Simultaneous Drills: Both Russia and NATO have initiated military exercises in the Baltic Sea this month, with overlapping timelines. In early May, Russia’s Baltic Fleet conducted a “Safety of Navigation” exercise focused on protecting civilian maritime traffic from interception. This was perceived as a direct response to NATO’s increased scrutiny of Russia’s shadow fleet and a demonstration of Moscow’s intent to maintain its presence in the Baltic Sea. NATO’s BALTOPS 2025 naval exercise, scheduled to begin on June 3, coincides with Russian drills launched a month earlier than usual. The proximity of these exercises heightens the risk of confrontations, both intended and unintended. Let’s hope that cooler heads prevail.

The following video from Borzzikman, provides a good summary of the latest naval incident on May 29:

Meanwhile, along the line of contact in Ukraine, Bild reports Russian Armed Forces have already captured 18 Ukrainian settlements and about 200 square kilometers. You know things are getting desperate for Ukraine when even the German media concedes that Russia is moving forward… so much for the stalemate claim.

Finally, Russia media is doing wall-to-wall coverage of a collapsed bridge in the Bryansk region that crushed the engine and a couple of passenger cars on a civilian train and caused the train to derail, the train that originated in Moscow and was headed to Klimovo. I do not believe in coincidence. From my vantage point, I believe this was a deliberate attack on both the bridge and the train. It is likely that an explosive charge had been placed on the bridge and the perpetrators waited to blow it until the train could take no evasive action. There are two possibilities: 1) the saboteurs were nearby and detonated it, or 2) there was video surveillance and it was remotely detonated. Either way, this was a terrorist attack. Hitting a civilian passenger train is not a legitimate target of war.

I participated in a podcast yesterday, hosted by Danny Haiphong, and shared the stage with Scott Ritter: