Trump’s Failed Iran Gambit Gives Tehran New Advantage in Future Negotiations

Trump can keep smearing lipstick on his “most successful military strike in history,” but repetition of that phrase does not make this pig look like Marilyn Monroe. If the military objective was to eliminate Iran’s ability to enrich uranium and produce a nuclear weapon, the mission was an abject failure. Don’t take my word for it, just listen to Israel’s I24 News Network:

The Iranian Fordow nuclear facility can only be destroyed from the inside. Let’s stop with illusions and fantasies. it can only be done from within, or with 100’s of bombs dropped one after another.

What’s troubling is this: We set a goal to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program—but we failed to do it. Iran still has enriched uranium, and it still has key active facilities.

Then there is the report from CNN:

All 3 Iran’s nuclear facilities targeted by the US strikes remained fully operational, CNN reports, citing an early US intelligence assessment.

🔴 Enriched uranium NOT destroyed

🔴 Centrifuges intact

🔴 Secret sites not even hit

And let’s not forget the NY Times:

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The early findings conclude that the strikes over the weekend set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months, the officials said. . . .

The findings suggest that President Trump’s statement that Iran’s nuclear facilities were obliterated was overstated, at least based on the initial damage assessment. Congress had been set to be briefed on the strike on Tuesday, and lawmakers were expected to ask about the findings of the assessment, but the session was postponed. Senators are now set be briefed on Thursday.

The report also said much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Some of that may have been moved to secret nuclear sites maintained by Iran.

The White House, echoing Donald Trump’s tantrum, reacted with outrage for the media doing its job of telling truth to power:

The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program,” she said in a statement. “Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.

Young Ms. Leavitt is just doing her job… painting the pig with lipstick on behalf of Donald Trump. Here is the truth: Iran removed enriched uranium from Fordow two days before the US attacked the site. You can see the line of trucks outside the underground entrance to Fordow in the photo below:

Now let me explain how Trump essentially shot himself in his metaphorical foot and empowered Iran. The key factor is Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA; so let’s review the history:

Early IAEA Oversight (2003)

• In February 2003, Iran officially acknowledged its nuclear facilities and granted IAEA inspectors access to the Natanz enrichment site, following revelations of undeclared activities.

• By June 2003, under the Tehran Declaration with the EU-3, Iran pledged full IAEA cooperation and agreed to sign the Additional Protocol, allowing short-notice inspections

Enhanced Access & JCPOA Phase (2007–2015)

• From 2007 onward, the IAEA conducted several annual inspections at key facilities—including Natanz, Fordow, and Arak—and worked through structured frameworks to address proliferation concerns.

• Following the 2015 JCPOA, Iran implemented the Additional Protocol and allowed daily access to enrichment plants and managed visits to other nuclear sites. IAEA monitoring during this period confirmed Iran’s compliance.

Limitations and Rollbacks (Post‑2018)

• After the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran gradually reduced IAEA access, culminating in the removal of surveillance cameras and declines in cooperation by mid‑2022.

Even after Trump ended US participation in the JCPOA, IAEA continued to have access to Iran’s nuclear facilities. After Israel’s attacks on June 13, that cooperation was ended by Iran. The Iranian legislature has voted to put a permanent end to further cooperation with the IAEA. Prior to June 13, the IAEA and the United States knew with a high level of confidence the location of Iran’s enriched uranium. Now that it has been removed, the US, Israel and the West are blind… they don’t know where Iran has stored the enriched uranium.

Based on my prior experience, I believe that the CIA had a human source asset inside the IAEA. In other words, we had a spy who was providing us information about the identities of Iran’s nuclear scientists, the activities at each of the nuclear plants — including the amount and nature of the enriched uranium, and information about the architectural details of each site. I don’t know if this person (or persons) were CIA recruited assets or if they were recruited by another country, which then shared the information with the CIA. I believe it was the specificity of this information that enabled the US intelligence community to report with high confidence that Iran was not building a nuclear bomb.

I think Iran now realizes it has been betrayed by the IAEA and will no longer share any information about enrichment activities, nor will Iran allow any inspections. This is now a new obstacle to negotiating a deal with Iran to provide assurances to the West that it is not building a nuclear device. This has dramatically and profoundly weakened Donald Trump’s negotiating position… he has lost leverage on the most critical issue.

Because of the treachery of the IAEA in facilitating Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13, I think Iranian military and intelligence officials may now be inspired to adopt measures they previously rejected. For example, Iran could ask Russia for assistance in reforming its counter intelligence capabilities. Iran could also ask Russia and China for assistance in rebuilding and protecting Iranian nuclear facilities damaged by Israeli and US attacks. And, unless the Iranians are morons, they will now seek Russian aid in upgrading Iranian air-defense systems. Regardless of the physical damage inflicted on Iran in the last 12 days, I think Iran is now highly motivated to upgrade its intelligence and military capabilities in preparation for the next war with Israel and the US.

Today, I discussed some of this with Marcello, my Brazilian buddy who lives in Italy: